19th-20th Century

19th century after Napoléon Bonaparte: 143 quatrains (§588-§730).

20th century: 219 quatrains /(1901-2000) = 219/100 = 2.2: the age of the world-wide unheard-of catastrophes (§731-§949).
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Foreword

Foreword   

lastupdate: January 22, 2015.

 The Prophecies of Michel Nostradamus(1503-1566) contains in all 958 quatrains (cf. Vérifications Historiques des quatrains prophétiques de Michel Nostradamus aux seizième-vingtième siècles; La Première Partie: Au Seizième Siècle, Introduction §1. La totalité des Prophéties de Nostradamus; 958 quatrains), whose two thirds, namely about 640 quatrains are already interpreted with success, though not completely,  at least in finding out their principal subjects in relation to the world history of the 16th-20th century by our predecessors in the previous centuries as follows:

16th century: 45 quatrains by J.-A. de Chavigny (1594).

17th century: 20 quatrains by Jaubert (1656), Garencières (1672) & Guynaud (1693).

18th century: 15 quatrains by Le Roux (1710), Anonym, La vie et le testament de Michel Nostradamus (1789) & H. D. (1800).

19th century: 270 quatrains by Bellaud (1806), Bouys (1806), Barest (1840), Torné-Chavigny (1860-1862), Le Pelletier (1867) et al.

20th century: 290 quatrains by Vignois (1910), Nicoullaud (1914), Larmor (1925), Wöllner (1926), Centurio (1953), Robb (1961a,b), Fontbrune, father & son (1939; 1980, 1996),  Ionescu (1976, 1987, 1993), Dufresne (1989-1998), Guernon (1999-2000), Ovason (1997) et al.

If we take in consideration the notice of the author: "I have computed and calculated these present prophecies in all according to the order of the chain which contains its development of the all by means of astronomical doctrine and according to my natural instinct."(Dedication to Henry II), 318 (= 958-640) undeciphered quatrains must fulfill the chain of the chronological order of the quatrains already solved at least concerning their subject. This means two things; the chain should be prolonged forward, or else be completed retrograde.

And according to my experience of having discovered many quatrains interpreters attribute to our future already effectively and historically accomplished, I determined to find the solutions of the remaining quatrains strictly in the domain of our historical data.

At last, I arrived at the conclusion concerning the numbers of the quatrains distributed respectively to each century as follows:

16th century: 233 quatrains (§1-§233).

17th century: 79 quatrains (§234-§312).

18th century: 131 quatrains (§313-§443).

19th century: 287 quatrains (§444-§730).

20th century: 219 quatrains (§731-§949).     

Ex-century subject: 9 quatrains (§950-§958).

Of these, this Blog in English « Nostradamus Anthology » will take in consideration Part III: the Post-Napoleonic Ages, i.e. §588-§949 (Chapter I the 19th century (1821-1900): §588-§730. Chapter II the 20th century (1901-2000): §731-§930. the Grand Finale §931- §949); in fact Part II: §342-§587 refers to the French Revolution and Napoleon Bonaparte, of which the former will be treated by my Blog in Japanese « 歴史詩人Nostradamus » (§342-§410) and the latter by my Blog in French « Heroica Napoleona » (§411-§587), and Part I: §1-§341 will be treated by my Blog in French « Poète Historique Nostradamus ». 

Briefly speaking, the average density of quatrains per year of each century reflects its politico-dynamical characteristics from the view point of the Prophet:

 

16th century: 233 quatrains /(1555-1600) = 233/46 = 5.1: the age of French civil wars whose commencement the Prophet himself testified. 

 

17th century: 79 quatrains /(1601-1700) = 79/100 = 0.8: the age of stability under the grand king Louis XIV.

 

18th century: 131 quatrains /(1701-1800) = 131/100 = 1.3: the age of stability under the long reigns of  Louis XIV, Louis XV and Louis XVI except under the Revolution, which partakes 100 quatrains,  76 % of 131.     

 

19th century: 287 quatrains /(1801-1900) = 287/100 = 2.9: the age of the grand vicissitudes of France and Italy, the two countries with which  the Prophet  concerns himself  most diligently. 

 

20th century: 219 quatrains /(1901-2000) = 219/100 = 2.2: the age of the world-wide unheard-of  catastrophes.      

 

General average: 949/(1555-2000) = 949/446 = 2.1  

 

Plan of the Blog « Nostradamus Anthology »: 

Chapter I: the 19th century (1821-1900); §588-§730.

Chapter II: the 20th century (1901-2000); §731-§930.

The Grand Finale; §931-§949.

Miscellanies.


© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2011-2014. All rights reserved.  

§739 Montenegro, Dalmatia, Turkey, Italy and USA in the Great War (1914-1918): IX-60.

IX-60 (§739):

Barbarous conflicts in the black Corner,
Blood shed, Dalmatia shall tremble,
Great Ismael shall construct his promontory,
Tuscany shall tremble, succour Lusitania.

(Conflict Barbar en la Cornere noire,
Sang espandu trembler la d’Almatie,
Grand Ismaël mettra son promontoire,
Ranes trembler secours Lusitanie.
)

NOTES: Barbar: an apocope of Barbare (cf. §135, IX-42: Barbare, Barbar; §196, X-38: [le] saint barbar). The form with majuscule initial Barbar employed here as an adjective suggests moreover Ba- of [the] Balkans, the main theatre of the events predicted.

Cornere: = « corneüre, s.f., son du cor (sound of a horn); pointe de la salle (corner of the room); T. mil., angle, corne (military term, point, angle).» (Godefroy). Cf. « corniere, s.f., corne (horn), coin (corner), angle (angle). » (Godefroy).

La Cornere noire: The black Corner = « Montenegro » (Centurio, 1953, p.203).

Centurio (id.) gives us a suggestive reading of the quatrain: « (June 1914) A conflict with Germany occurs in the black Corner (Montenegro), Blood shall be shed and Dalmatia shall tremble: The great Arab shall construct his promontory, the people upon the Arno shall be in anxiety, helps coming over Portugal. Nicholas, Archduke of Montenegro, father-in-law of Europe, played a role not to be underestimated in the arising conflict in June 1914. Furious battles were given in Dalmatia against the Lovzen, the mountain-gates of Montenegro. At the same time, the great Arab fortified the Dardanelles; the inhabitants upon the Arno were imperiled. Helps came over Portugal, for there were landed during the wartime of 1917-1918 American rescue troops and war materials.».

Barbarous conflicts in the black Corner, Blood shed, Dalmatia shall tremble: Each of the placenames of Montenegro and Dalmatia in the Great War has a double meaning in this quatrain: that of an expected booty of a belligerent country and that of the group of belligerents it joined; in fact Lovzen (Lovcen, Lovtchen) in Montenegro was coveted beforehand by Austria in agreement with Germany (cf. Brentano, 1922, Nachwort) and Montenegro represents by metonymy the camp of Ententes. On the other hand, Dalmatia was one of the promised gains of Italy in agreement with Great Britain and France by her joining their camp (cf. Kitahara et al., 2008, p.473) and it symbolises metonymically its suzerain Austria-Hungary.

Barbarous conflicts in the black Corner: « Montenegro, The last ruler, Nicholas I (Prince, 1860-1910: King, 1910-18) modernized his state... He considerably extended his territories by judicious intervention in the Balkan Wars. He went to war in 1914 in support of Serbia and, when his Kingdom was overrun at the end of 1915, he escaped to France (where he died in 1921). The Allies believed that Nicholas had not resisted the Austrians as energetically as he might, and when in 1918 a packed assembly at Podgorica deposed the dynasty and voted for union with Serbia, the Allies, with many qualms, accepted the decision.» (Palmer, p.188-189); « In January 1916, warships of the Allies landed on Corfu some detachments who prepared for the arrival of the debris of Serbian army, taking refuge most deplorably on the Albanian coasts after horrible trials. It was on the eve of German rush for Verdun [21 Feb. – 26 Nov. 1916]. The King Nicolas of Montenegro delivered Lovtchen, reputed impregnable, to the Austrian troops, who entered Cetinje. A few days later, on January 18th, William II saw at Nish Tsar Ferdinand [I of Bulgaria], and celebrated with him the crush of Serbia, on the anniversary of the foundation of the Kingdom of Prussia.» (Gauvain et al., 1922, p.378-379).

Blood shed, Dalmatia shall tremble
: = Central Powers’ defeat in the Balkan: « The remains of the Serbian army, evacuated to Salonika via Albania and Corfu, was re-equipped as a fighting force. While the British General Staff in London urged evacuation, the Allies remained for wider political and strategic reasons. The Salonika front was therefore consolidated, vast camps were laid out, and Italian and Russian contingents joined the Serbs, French and British forces. By the spring of 1917 Sarrail’s fighting force comprised twenty-four divisions (seven British, seven Serbian, six French, three Greek, one Italian) plus a Russian contingent of two brigades. An offensive was launched towards the end of April. It failed because of the strength of the Bulgarian mountain positions, the Allies’ lack of enthusiasm for Balkan operations, and the fact that Sarrail’s abrasive personality contributed to poor cooperation between the Allies. Operations were accordingly ended on 21 May. The Allied contingent in the theatre amounted to some 500,000 men, and the international force did little except sit tight and become vivtim to the malaria endemic to the region. The Germans, watching with some amusement, called Salonika their largest internment camp, while the Allies spoke of ‘the gardeners of Salonika’. In 1918, Franchet d’Esperey replaced Sarrail, and commanded an Allied force of twenty-six divisions (nine Greek, six French, six Serb, four British one Italian). He concentrated a Franco-Serbian force under Serbian command for an offensive starting on 15 September west of the Vardar, where the mountains were strong but the Bulgarian defences weak. The Serbs broke through in two days and advanced twenty miles through the mountains, creating the gap twenty-five miles wide in the Bulgarian line. Further east, a British attack on the Doiran front on the eighteenth failed to break through but pinned down the Bulgarian forces facing them while the Serbs and French continued their advance towards Uskub [Skopje], collapsing the Bulgarian front. This pressure on the front east of the Vardar now forced a Bulgarian retreat that turned into a rout when British aircraft bombed the Kosturino Pass. With their demoralized army now split into two, and realizing that Germany was heading for defeat on the Western Front, the Bulgarians asked for an armistice. On 29 September this was signed. The Allies, led fittingly enough by Serbia, had knocked away the first prop of the Central Powers, opening the way through Bulgaria for an Allied offensive against Austria. Desperate Frankie [Franchet d’Esperey] had knocked out Foxy Ferdie [Tsar Ferdinand I of Bulgaria], and his army continued to move, and occupy, the Balkans. By the end of the war his forces were advancing deep into Hungarian territory.» (Chasseaud, 2013, p.85-90).

Ismael: = The Arab = the Ottoman Empire (Turkey). « ISMAËL. ... The tradition in the oracle of Gn 16,12 represents him as the eponymous ancestor of the Israëlites and, as this title, as the ancestor of the Arabs.»(Monloubou)

Promontory (promontoire): This term in the Prophecies of Nostradamus is a metaphor for 1° an advance army or its camp (I-77,VI-79, IX-60); 2° a second maritime residence (VIII-85).

Great Ismael shall construct his promontory: « Churchill’s plan at first envisaged only a naval operation, using minesweepers and old battleships to force a passage through the minefields and shore batteries of the entrance to the Dardanelles and the Narrows into the Sea of Marmara, from where the British and French fleet would continue eastward to the Bosphorus and Constantinople. However, the Turks [Great Ismael] and their German military advisers had been thoroughly forewarned. Churchill had ordered a British naval bombardment of the forts at Cape Helles and Kum Kale, at the entrance to the Dardanelles on 3 November 1914. There was a further bombardment from 19 February to mid-March 1915 and there were landings of naval and marine demolition parties. On 18 March a big attempt was made to push through. Three battleships struck mines, and the fleet, under the British Admiral de Robeck, turned back. The Turks had, advised by the German military mission, fortified the peninsula during the Italo-Turkish War and the Balkan Wars, and again following the naval bombardment of 3 November 1914. The delays in mounting this operation gave the Turks time to strengthen their defences even further to cover the possible landing places, digging trenches and constructing strong-points, wiring them, and siting machine guns and artillery for maximum effect [Great Ismael shall construct his promontory].» (Chasseaud, 2013, p.72-73); « Allied Forces landed at Gallipoli on 25 April [1915], including a large contingent of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps [ANZAC]. Faced with tough Turkish resistance on difficult terrain, they failed to break out of their landing zones. Renewed landings at Suvla Bay in August achieved no greater success. Trench warfare, similar to that in France but with conditions exacerbated by heat and disease, quickly developed. By the time the operation was abandoned in January 1916, the Allied forces had suffered almost a quarter of a million casualties. Success at Gallipoli was a boost to Turkish morale, which was much needed after the Turkish Third Army had been virtually destroyed fighting the Russians in the Caucasus earlier in the year.» (DKHistory, p.343).


Rane: From the Latin « rāna, -ae, f.: 1° grenouille (frog); 2° baudroie (anglerfish).»
(Ernout & Meillet). The appellation of RANE is employed thrice in the Prophecies of Nostradamus (§331, V-3; §530, VI-46 and §739, IX-60) with the same meaning of Tuscany, the Fables III, 7 and VI, 3 of Metamorphoses of Ovid telling the story of the origin of this eccentric nomination (cf. §530, VI-46). Tuscauny in this quatrain represents Italy by metonymy.

Tuscany shall tremble: « The Italian Front was stabilized along the River Isonzo for two and a half years before the Italians were forced back from Caporetto to the River Piave in October 1917, avenging their defeat by the victory of Vittorio Veneto a year later.» (Palmer, p.306).

Lusitania: « At sea, Germany responded to an ongoing blockade of its ports by the British Royal Navy by attempting to impose its own blockade on Britain through the use of submarines. From February [1915] German U-Boats were authorized to attack merchant shipping in British home waters without warning. On 7 May, the Cunard liner Lusitania, bound from New York to Liverpool with almost 2,000 passengers and crew on board, was torpedoed off southern Ireland by the submarine U-20. More than 1,200 people were drowned, including 128 Americans citizens. The attack provoked anti-German riots in British cities and a hostile response in the US. After the sinking of another passenger liner, Arabic, off Iceland on 19 August, the Germans felt obliged to curtail U-boat attacks in the Atlantic to avoid provoking the US into entering the war.» (
DKHistory, p.342-343).

Succour Lusitania
: = Lusitania being the succour to the Allies, namely « the sinking of the cruise liner Lusitania in 1915 caused outrage, contributing to the USA joining in the War against Germany.» (Parker, 2010, p.318); « The USA enters the War 1917-1918 It was German action that finally broke the 1917 stalemate. In February, Germany announced it was resuming unrestricted attacks on foreign shipping. The threat to US trade interests was clear, and was compounded by a telegram written by the German foreign minister encouraging Mexico to attack the USA. President Woodrow Wilson’s attempts to maintain neutrality in the conflict, and to act as an honest broker for peace, were over, and in April the USA declared war on Germany. However, it was not until June that the first US troops arrived in France, under the command of General John Pershing, and they were posted to the trenches only in October. The initial inexperience of the Americans, and the fact that Pershing at first failed to have his troops operate independently of their allies, meant that for a while their impact was limited. Yet the German High Command was well aware that each increase in the numbers of US soldiers fighting with the Allies – which reached four complete divisions by 1918 – lessened the chance of a German victory.» (Parker, id., p.320). « The End of the War 1918 In March 1918, Germany signed a peace treaty at Brest-Litovsk with the new Bolchevik government of Russia. This freed up some 44 German divisions, which were now shifted to the Western Front. The German Chief of Staff, Erich Ludendorff, argued that these divisions should be used for a massive all-or-nothing assault. On 21 March, the Germans launched Operation Michael, the first element in their “Spring Offensive”. They won 70km (45 miles) of ground, but their largest gains were against the least resistance. As Allied resistance stiffened, Germany’s initial momentum stalled. Ludendorff ordered further small attacks between April and July, but by then, with the US presence growing at 250,000 men a month [Succour], it was clear that his gamble had failed... Finally, the Germans signed an armistice on 11 November, bringing World War I to an end.» (id., p.321).

Discussion:
Concerning the last verse: succour Lusitania, Centurio says that « Helps came over Portugal, for there were landed during the wartime of 1917-1918 American rescue troops and war materials.» (Centurio, 1953, p.203). Alhough the term Lusitania may also mean Portugal, this country in the Great War was never a front nor a supply base for the Allies except for some expeditionary divisions of her own sent to the Allied Western Front. The American troops were posted to the Western Front not via Portugal, far from the Front and walled by Spanish territories in neutrality, but via French Atlantic ports, nearer to the Front with direct access there by train.

« On Monday, May 28, 1917, a gloomy foggy day, General Pershing and his staff boarded a launch at Governor’s Island in New York harbor and made the rough, choppy trip to the White Star liner Baltic out in the channel... As they steamed into the danger zone, all took increased interest in the regular boat drills. Within the next year and a half, two million American soldiers would undergo the same tension, followed by enthusiasm and relief when the escorting destroyers came into sight for the last leg of the journey. At nine-thirty on the morning of June 8, the local dignitaries and an honor guard, complete with the regimental mascot, a formidable-looking goat, of the Royal Welsh Fusiliers turned out to welcome Pershing to Liverpool. After the ceremonies, the Americans went by train to London, where they spent hectic four days... Early in the morning of June 13, Pershing and his officers left the Savoy Hotel for the last lap of their trip to France. A few hours later they landed in Boulogne. Again there were ceremonies, followed by a train trip to Paris. That afternoon was the climax. Parisians thronged the streets shouting “Vive l’Amerique,” pelted the completely surprised Americans with flowers, and surged toward them to shake or just touch hands.» (Coffman, 1968, p.122-123).

« Throughout December [1917] and January [1918] in frequent conferences, British civilian as well as military leaders tried to obtain Pershing’s assent to amalgamation. The French also tried to obtain American units to reinforce their weakened divisions... » (id., p.169); « In the late afternoon of June 1, Pershing, who was not feeling very well, conferred with Foch [the French Chief of Staff] and Lord Milner [the British War Minister]. He summarized the conversation in his diary: “He [Foch] wanted all the transports used for bringing over infantry and machine gun units. I pointed out that our program has been seriously interrupted by the concessions already made to this idea; that the French railroads are on the point of breaking down for the lack of skilled workmen to repair their rolling stock, that the ports are going to become congested because of breakdown of the railroad service and that there are not sufficient men now in France to unload the boats; that we are pushing the shipbuilding, but that it is useless to do this unless we take steps to be ready to unload the ships. Along this line of argument, I pointed out that this could be a short-sighted policy which would lead us to a very complicated situation.”» (id., p.176-177).

« The first problem was to determine in round number how many men were involved. Unless the planners on both sides of the Atlantic used the same figure, they could not possibly hope to get together on the many details of supply schedules. Although Pershing did not give a specific figure in his request, he evidently thought in terms of “at least 5,000,000 men.” On the other hand, Clemenceau believed that he was asking for an AEF of 4,160,000 soldiers... The Secretary of War, on July 8, explained:

...
all the ports in France, and all the berthing space there, if devoted to the exclusive use of America, would not, on present calculations, be adequate for the 100-Division program...

Although Wilson approved the 80-division program, he did so, perhaps, with reluctance in view of its large logistical demands... Despite Pershing’s urgent reassurances, however, there was also the question of the ability of the AEF as well as the capacity of the French ports and railroads to handle the logistical burden.» (id., p.179-181).

« With the help of the British, whose ships carried to France 49 per cent of the AEF, the War Department sent across the Atlantic more men in the last eight and a half months of the war than there were in the entire army at home and abroad on April I, 1918... The end was in sight, since the United States already had that many divisions in France or en route. But, in the first week of October, when the difficult situation in the Argonne was a burden, Pershing wanted as many men as possible to ensure victory.» (id., p.182-183).
_______________________________________
© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2018. All rights reserved. 

§738 A princely couple assassinated; the Great War unlatched (1914.6.28): IX-10.

IX-10 (§738):

A monk and a nun exposed to death by a child,
Shall die in Servo, bereft of their lives by a glassware.
Foix and Pamiers shall set up the camp
Against Toulouse and Carcassonne, dispersing cavalries.

(Moyne moynesse d'enfant mort exposé,
Mourir par ourse & ravy par verrier.
Par Fois & Pamyes le camp sera posé
Contre Tholose Carcas dresser forrier.
)

NOTES: Monk : « Moyne (Monk). – This word has the same root as the word monarque (monarch), μόνος (alone, solitary, only), and Nostradamus by the phrase: MOYNE MOYNESSE designates a monarch and his spouse.» (Torné-Chavigny, 1861, p.51). In fact, of 7 usages in all of the word moine, moyne or moynesse in the Prophecies of Nostradamus, only 3 (I-44, VI-60 and VI-73) are in a proper sense and 4 (I-95, IX-10bis and IX-20) are figuratif in the sense of ‘monarchical or princely’.

A monk and a nun: = deux heron (§737, X-63). Torné-Chavigny’s comment that in this quatrain « a monk and a nun designate a monarch and his spouse » is most probable because its second hemistich predicts a military confrontation of the antagonistic camps. And the situation of this royal couple that they are firstly imperiled by a child and secondly bereft of their lives leads us to the historical scene of a tragedy of the assassination of archduke of Austria Francis Ferdinand and his wife Sophie at Sarajevo (Serajévo) on June 28th, 1914, and in this context the ordinary term « ourse » (she-bear) may particularly suggest, as an anagrammatic enigma, « Serajévo (Sarajevo) » via « ourse » → « seruo » → « servo ».

Mort exposé
(Death exposed): = à mort exposé (to death exposed), the preposition à (to) being eliminated for the sake of prophetic tangling.
Cf. « Cueur, vigueur, gloire le regne changera.» (III-15, §323) ↔ « Le regne changera de cueur, de vigueur et de gloire.»; « son oncle, qui ses enfans par regner trucidez» (VIII-89, §324) ↔ « son oncle [= Louis XIV], pour qui ses enfans par regner [= ses dauphins] [seront] trucidez [par la maladie]»; « Quand Rod.& Gennes leur faudra le biscuit.» (II-3, §99) ↔ « Quand pour Rod. & Gennes [il] leur faudra le biscuit.»

Par ourse
: = par servo (at or in Servo [Serajévo]). 

Verrier: « adj. Glass. – m. Glass-blower, glass-maker; glass-basket (or) –rack (or) -stand» (Dubois). 

Par verrier
: = by car, verrier (glassware) representing in this case the windshield of glass of the princely vehicle (cf. The exhibits of the Museum of Military History (Heeresgeschichtliches Museum) in Vienna).

A monk and a nun exposed to death by a child, Shall die in Servo and bereft of their lives by a glassware
: « When the princely couple [A monk and a nun] passed the streets of Serajévo (Sarajevo) [in Servo] by car [by a glassware], a young Bosnian [a child] named Gabrinovitch (Cabrinovitch) [1895-1916], a typographer, threw at the car a bomb that did not attain its occupants [exposed to death], but injured some persons of the suite. Notwithstanding this warning, the Archduke continued his visit, while the police, reprimanded severly by him, did not take special precautions. A few moments later, a Bosnian student, Gavrilo Princip [1894-1918], fired at the Archduke and his wife two shots of revolver which caused their nearly immediate death [Shall die in Servo and bereft of their lives by a glassware].»
(Gauvain, 1922, p.2).

Forrier: = a dispersed cavalry. « forrier, s.m., fourrageur; fig., avant-coureur.» 
(Godefroy); « fourrageur n.m., Forager, dispersed cavalier.» (Suzuki).

Foix and Pamiers shall set up the camp Against Toulouse and Carcassonne, dispersing cavalries: If we are on the way to the truth, the confrontation of the camp of Foix and Pamiers against that of Toulouse and Carcassonne merely symbolizes the world-wide conflict called the Great War between the Allies (Ententes) and the Central Powers (Alliances) but locally germinated, the camp of Foix and Pamiers, sparsely populated regions, referring to the latter and that of Toulouse and Carcassonne, with large populations, to the former (cf. Middleton and Heater, 1989, Unit 6-3 Europe: Alliances and Ententes;
Ploetz, 1998, p.715); « World War I. The immediate cause of the War was the spread of nationalism in the Balkans, as shown by the assassination at Sarajevo and the determination of the Austrians to destroy the Serbian ‘hornets’ nest’ The reasons why this conflict could not be localized lie further back. Among them was the division of Europe into rival camps [the camp ... against ...] by a system of alliances, originally defensive in character but made dangerous through a lessening of international trust by successive crises – Morocco in 1905, Bosnia in 1908-9, Agadir in 1911. Anglo-German relations had worsened because of naval rivalry and, to a much lesser extent, trade competition.» (Palmer, p.305).

The list of populations of the cities quoted and the belligerent countries:
« Foix: 4,960; Pamiers: 6,245; Toulouse: 59, 630; Carcassonne: 15,752 (as of c.1830):» (MacCarthy). 
« Austria-Hungary: 50,000,000; Germany: 65,000,000; Turkey: 27,000,000; Bulgaria: 4,250,000; Serbia: 3,000,000; Russia: 170,000,000; France: 39,500,000; Britain: 45,000,000; Montenegro: 500,000; Italy: 34,500,000; Portugal: 5,500,000; Romania: 7,000,000; Greece: 3,000,000 (as of 1910).» (MacEvedy, 1982, p.43).
« Japan: 52,000,000; USA: 94,000,000; China: 325,000,000 (as of 1911)» (Williams, 1968, p.437).

Comparison of totals:
Foix + Pamiers = 11,205.
Toulouse + Carcassonne = 75,382.
75382/11205 = 6.7
The Central Powers (Austria-Hungary + Germany + Turkey + Bulgaria) = 146,250,000.
The Allies (Serbia + Russia + France + Britain + Montenegro + Italy + Portugal + Romania + Belgium + Greece + Japan + USA + China) = 779,000,000.
779000000/146250000 = 5.3

The analogical usage of place-names of this sort is seen also in the quatrain III-62 (§507) as to Tyrrene.
_______________________________________
© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§737 Before and after the Great War in the Balkans (1889-1919): X-63.

X-63 (§737):

Cydonia, Ragusa, the city of saint Jerome,
The medical help shall remake green,
Death of a son of a king by the death of two herons,
The Arabe Hungary shall make common cause.

(Cydron, Raguse, la cité au saint Hieron,
Reverdira le medicant secours,
Mort filz de roy par mort de deux heron,
L'Arabe Ongrie feront un mesme cours.
)

NOTES: J. Guernon (2000, p.156-157), being not fully convinced of himself, gives us the theme of the quatrain as the events that started the First World War. We will develop it in full scope.

Cydron: An anagrammatic enigma of Cydon = Cydonia (modern Canea): « Kυδωνία (Kydōnia), Cydonia, city of the northern coast of Crete.» (Pillon). The word Cydron itself seems to refer to the Greek κυδρόν (kūdron, glorious, renowned) (cf. Liddell & Scott).

Raguse: « Ragusa. See Dubrovnik.», « Dubrovnik. Town and port, southern Croatia.» (as of 1997) (Room); « RAGUSE, cercle of the Austrian States, Dalmatia, isolated from the rest of this State, between European Turkey to the North and to the East, and the Adriatic. Capital, Raguse.» [as of 1863] (Bescherelle).

The city of saint Jerome
: = Stridon = « STRIDONIA, anc. geog.; city of Upper Pannonia, upon the river of Mura. Home country of saint Jerome.» (Bescherelle). The conditions of ‘Upper Pannonia, upon the river of Mura’ designate the area of the city of Stridon as in eastern Slovenia or in northern Croatia (cf. Duby, p.201, Chart C. Formation of Yugoslavia. The Mura is running parallel with the Drava (Drave) north of it to join it.)

Reverdir: = « Rendre vert de nouveau.» (Petit Robert).

Medicant: = Healing, curing, from the Latin « medeor, to heal, cure.» (Smith-Lockwood); « Medicatif. Portant remède (Bringing a remedy).» (Huguet)


Cydonia, Ragusa, the city of saint Jerome, The medical help shall remake green: = The medical help shall remake Cydonia, Ragusa, the city of saint Jerome green: The Powers of the Triple Entente (Britain, France and Russia) shall help the Balkans stand on their own feet liberated from the foreign occupation:

1° Crete [Cydonia] is refreshed by the unification with Greece in 1908 after having been autonomous in 1898, which finishes her liberation from the long Turkish occupation, the independence of Greece itself from the Turkish rule in 1830 having been effected with their military aid: « ... the Great Powers intervened to establish a Greek Kingdom [The medical help shall remake ... green]...» (Palmer, p.119); « 1830 Feb: 3rd, at London Conference, Greece is declared independent under the protection of France, Russia and Britain.» (Williams, 1968, p.162); « An uprising on Crete failed (1866). After the acquisition of Thessaly (1881), Macedonia became the object of dispute between Greece and Bulgaria. A 2nd uprising on Crete led to the 1897 Greco-Turkish War with Greek defeats in Thessaly. Nevertheless, Crete gained political autonomy under Turkish sovereignty because of the interference of the great powers [The medical help shall remake Cydron green]. The leader of Enosis, Venizelos (1864-1936), proclaimed the annexation of Crete in 1905. 1908 Formal union of Crete and Greece.» (
PenguinAtlas 2, p.81).

2° « Croatia [Ragusa], region of Yugoslavia, capital Zagreb (formerly called Agram). Although there was an independent Croatia in the tenth century, from 1102 to 1918 Croatia was joined to Hungary. In 1917 Croatian exiles signed with the Serbian Government the ‘Pact of Corfu’ providing for the establishment of a Yugoslav State after the war.» (Palmer, p.74).

3° Slovenia [the city of saint Jerome = Stridon]: « Yugoslavia. A movement for the union of the South Slav peoples, known originally as ‘Illyrianism’, began early in the nineteenth century but it was not until the First World War that a South Slav State (a ‘Yugoslavia’) became possible with the prospect of detaching Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina from Austria-Hungary and uniting them with Serbia and Montenegro. The Pact of Corfu, an agreement on the formation of a unitary kingdom under the Serbian dynasty, was signed on July 20th, 1917, and the ‘Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes’ came into being officially on December 4th, 1918. King Alexander formally changed the name of the Kingdom to ‘Yugoslavia’ on October 3rd, 1929.» (Palmer, p.310).

4° « Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina was occupied by the Turks in the fifteenth century and, even today [in 1962], contains the largest group of Moslems in Europe outside Turkey. In the 1870s the provinces were moved by enthusiasm for union with their Serbian compatriots; in 1875 there was a serious uprising which was suppressed by the Turks with customary cruelty. At the Congress of Berlin of 1878 Austria-Hungary was given the right to occupy the provinces, although they remained part of the Turkish Empire. The Austrians developed Bosnia considerably, treating the provinces as if they were colonial possessions and reducing Turkish authority to a mere formality. The Young Turk movement made the Austrians fear that their control would be challenged, and in consequence they formally annexed the provinces in October 1908. The annexation precipitated the Bosnian Crisis since it was particularly resented by the Russians, who wanted compensation for increased Austrian power by concessions over the Straits. Although the menacing attitude of Austria’s ally, Germany, forced Russia to accept the annexation (March 1909), it left much international bitterness. Moreover, the Serbs living in Bosnia began a terrorist agitation against Austrian rule which culminated in the 1914 assassination in Sarajevo and so led to war. Between the wars the provinces formed part of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia.» (Palmer, p.36-37).

A king: = « Francis Joseph, Emperor of Austria (born 1830, reigned 1848-1916), succeeded to the throne on the abdication of his uncle, Ferdinand, during the revolution of 1848, crowned King of Hungary in 1867. Francis Joseph once described himself as ‘the last monarch of the old school’... his personal tragedy... His brother Maximilian, Emperor of Mexico, was executed (1867); his son Rudolf committed suicide at Mayerling (1889); his wife Elisabth was murdered by an anarchist at Geneva (1898); his nephew was assassinated at Sarajevo (1914). He reigned in full sovereignty for a longer period than any other European monarch and was succeeded by his great-nephew, Charles.» (Palmer, p.103-104).

Death of a son of a king
: «  Francis Joseph, Emperor of Austria... his son Rudolf committed suicide at Mayerling (1889).» (Palmer, p.104).

Heron [Héron]: « m. Z
OOL. Heron, hern.» (Dubois); « heron n. a large, long-legged bird that lives in marshy places. It lives on fish, frogs and insects.» (Dubois). Deux heron: = deux hérons (two herons), Nostradamus sometimes employing a singular form for a plural in favour of poetic simplicity with expressive essence: e.g., sept. fum extaint au canon des borneaux for sept. fums extaints aux canons des borneaux (§552, IX-14); bruit des cymbres, tubes & sonnaillons rendront... for bruits des cymbres, tubes & sonnaillons rendront... (§560, II-44); oyseaux dechassé,.. enemis repoulsé for oyseaux dechassés,.. enemis repoulsés (§567, II-23).

The expression ‘two herons’ is an Egyptian hieroglyphic symbol of ‘a burning anger of a man when he is injured by malice’ according to Orus Apollo compiled by Nostradamus in c.1545 (cf. Benazra, 1990, p.1-2; Dufresne, 1995, p.334; Clébert, 2003, p.1126; Guinard, 2015, p.58-59). This term in the quatrain connotes

1° the rage of a Bosnian Serb fanatic against the Austrian imperialistic annexation of the mainly Slavic provinces of Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908,
2° that of the Austrian government against the terrorism, and perhaps
3° that of Archduke Ferdinand on bad terms with the Emperor and his antiquated régime because of his morganatical marriage.

The death of two herons: = 1914 assassination of Archduke of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo; « Francis Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria (1863-1914); nephew of Francis Joseph and heir to the Austrian throne from 1889. Francis Ferdinand was a man of strong character. In 1900 he morganatically married the Countess Sophie Chotek (a Czech); the insults and affronts to which his wife was exposed by the petty restrictions of antiquated etiquette made Francis Ferdinand hostile to the régime and he became on bad terms with his uncle, the Emperor. Speculation on the extent to which Francis Ferdinand would have been a reforming monarch is, however, vain; on June 28th, 1914, he was assassinated, with his wife, on a ceremonial visit to Sarajevo, by a Bosnian Serb fanatic, an event that precipitated the First World War.» (Palmer, p.103).

By the death of two herons, The Arabe Hungary shall make common cause:
The Serbian assassination of the Prince of Austria unlatched the Austrian declaration of war upon Serbia that led to the First World War on a large scale fought between the Allies (Britain, France, Russia and Serbia) and the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria). Turkey [The Arabe] joined the latter: « Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia on July 28th, 1914; Russia mobilized along the German and Austrian frontiers on July 29th; Germany declared war on Russia on August 1st and on France on August 3rd, invading Belgium on the same day. Germany and Austria-Hungary were joined by Turkey (November 1914) and Bulgaria (October 1915). The original Allies were supported by eighteen other states, the most important being Japan (August 1914), Italy (May 1915) and the U.S.A. (April 1917).» (Palmer, p.306).

Discussion:
As to the first hemistich of the quatrain, Fontbrune (1999, p.130-131), understanding the verb reverdir in its ancient sense of maltraiter (to maltreat, to ill-treat), gives the following interpretation without any comment on the text “la cité au saint Hieron”: « Crete (Cydonia) and Dubrovnik (Raguse) will maltreat the humanitarian aid (Doctors of the World, Doctors Without Borders, etc.)». But, the verb ‘reverdira’, being the singular of the third person, should suppose ‘the medical help’ as its subject. Then, his interpretation leads to the reverse of his hope: ‘The humanitarian aid (Doctors of the World, Doctors Without Borders, etc.) will maltreat Crete and Dubrovnik.’ 
_______________________________________
© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§736 The Great War in Turkey (1896-1916): V-54.

V-54 (§736):

Of the Black Sea and the grand Tartary,
There shall be a king who shall visit France:
Transpierce Alany and Armenia,
And into Byzantium shall dart bloody pikes.

(Du pont Euxine, & la grand Tartarie,
Un roy sera qui viendra voir la Gaule:
Transpercera Alane & l'Armenie,
Et dans Bisance lairra sanglante Gaule.
)

NOTES: M. Dufresne (1995, p.174-175) gives us a nearly perfect explication of the quatrain. We only support it in citing pertinent sources.

Le pont Euxine
: In Greek ὁ πóντος Εὒξεινος (ho pontos Euxeinos, the Charitable Sea). « PONT-EUXIN, anc. geog.; a name the ancients gave by antiphrasis to the Black Sea [ὁ Ἄξεινος, ho Axeinos, the Uncharitable (Sea)].» (Bescherelle).

Grand Tartary
: = East Russia, for the name of Tartars « was originally given to all the peoples included between the Caspian Sea and the Sea of China» (Bescherelle) and the East of Russian Empire at the end of the 19th century and in the beginning of the 20th century covers the whole territory in question.

A king of the Black Sea and the grand Tartary: = The Emperor of Russia, the Black Sea and the grand Tartary representing respectively European Russia and East Russia.

Alany
: = in Greek « Àλανία (Alania), pays des Alains (country of the Alans).» (Pillon); « ALAINS, anc. geog.; nomadic peoples of Asian Sarmatia, settled near Palus-Meotide [the Sea of Azov], in the regions adjacent to Caucasus.» (Bescherelle).

Of the Black Sea and the grand Tartary, There shall be a king who shall visit France: = There shall be a king of the Black Sea and the grand Tartary who shall visit France: « 1891 Aug: 27th, Franco-Russian entente.» (Williams, 1968, p.356); « ... the Franco-Russian alliance unveiled publicly by the resounding manifestations: Czar and Czarina’s visit to France in 1896, accompanied by feasts, receptions, a solemn review of the troops, the President of the Republic’s visit to Russia in 1897.» (Seignobos, 1921c, p.307); « 1901 September Nicolas II’s visit to France. A grand review in Betheny (Marne).» (Jouette, p.182); « 1901 Sep: Visit of Russian Emperor to France provokes anti-militarist demosnstrations.» (Williams, 1968, p.396); « The Franco-Russian Entente was augmented, in April 1904, by a new agreement between France and Britain, which ended centuries of mutual hostility and distrust. King Edward VII (‘Edward the Peacemaker’) had broken the ice in Paris, paving the way for an Entente Cordiale. Russia was no longer seen as a serious threat to the Indian Empire, indeed, having just been defeated by Japan, she was temporarily a broken reed, while Germany was now viewed as Britain’s major rival and threat. France, needing to look elsewhere for support, turned to Britain. The Entente Cordiale developed into the Triple Entente, incorporating the Franco-Russian and a new Anglo-Russian Entente.» (Chasseaud, 2013, p.22); « 1907 Aug: 31st, Anglo-Russian Convention on Persia, Afghanistan and Tibet is signed, aligning Russia with Britain and France against the Central Powers.» (Williams, 1968, p.418).

[Who shall] transpierce Alany and Armenia: « The Caucasus: Turkey and Russia, having been brought into conflict by Russia’s inexorable expansion to the south, had fought three wars since 1828. The Caucasus, that great and mountainous land bridge between the Black Sea on the west and the Caspian on the east, was home to different ethnic and religious populations that included Armenians, Geogians and Tartars. Russia had supported, as a defensive measure, nationalist movements in the Balkans and also in the Caucasus. This antagonized the Turks who, in 1914, had just recovered from the Second Balkan War. Within the Ottoman Empire, the new doctrine of pan-Turkism, which strengthened after Turkey’s loss of outlying territories during the Balkan Wars – notably Libya and the Dodecanese Islands to Italy and parts of Macedonia and Thrace to Greece – increased the attraction to Turkey of the Caucasus. A Turkish attack on Russia here would pin down a Russian army and could be accompanied by its claim to be freeing Turkic people from Russian oppression, and also by its cry of jihad - holy war. Enver Pasha, Commander of the Ottoman forces, committed his third Army to a wide, enveloping movement through the mountains at Sarikamish, rather than the more methodical operations favoured by his German staff officer. Enver’s sweep to to the left (north), on the axis of Ardahan, took his troops sixty miles further on through hideously difficult terrain and winter conditions, at temperatures sometimes below – 30°C. This disastrous manoevre saw Turkish supplies exhausted on 25 December 1914, and their army virtually destroyed. The Russians successfully counter-attacked, having held Sarikamish in the battle of 1–4 January. Turkish casualties were between 75,000 and 90,000; most of their force. By 23 January 1915 this only numbered some 12,000 bayonets, with another 8,000 in supporting services. Even now Enver attempted to advance eastwards towards Persian Azerbaijan and Tabriz to encourage the Kurds to stage un uprising against the Russians. This failed. The Russian 1915 spring offensive aimed south from Kars to the west of Lake Van, in an area of eastern Anatolia partly-populated by Christian Armenians. Antagonism between Muslim Turks and the Armenians had grown in the late nineteenth century, culminating in violent clashes in 1894-6. As the Armenians were supported by the Russians, who in 1914 had encouraged revolt, the Turks suspected treason. Murders of Armenians, with looting and destruction of their villages, by Turkish soldiers, began during the winter. In April 1915, during the Russian advance, an Armenian revolt began in Van. Atrocities by Turks and Kurds followed, and at the end of May the deportation of Armenians south to Syria and Mosul was began. About a million dies, either from direct acts of violence or from exhaustion, exposure and disease. By August 1916, the Russians had pushed as far west as Trebizond and south to Lake Van, thus creating a large bridgehead in eastern Anatolia. The Caucasus came to prominence again following the 1917 Russian Revolutions, when the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk committed Russia to supplying German with oil from Baku, on the Caspian side of the Caucasus, and cotton from Turkestan. The weakening of Russia in the region, consequent upon the revolutions and military incapacity, encouraged the Turks to advance towards Baku. In early 1918 operation Thunderbolt saw the German forces that had moved into easten Ukraine and the Donetz Basin advancing southeast to Baku. The British were also increasing their presence in the region, following their advance to Mosul and the creation of ‘Dunsterforce’ in Persia. Named after its commander General Dunsterville, this was a British military mission of, initially, less than a thousand men, with armoured cars. It was formed after the Russian Revolution had led to the collapse of the Caucasus front to gather intelligence, train and lead tribal militias, and counter German propaganda in Persia.» (Chasseaud, 2013, p.91-93).

Lairra:
Future of laissier = laisser (to let), lâcher (to release) (cf. Daele).

Sanglante Gaule:
= Sanglante gaule (bloody pike), a proper name « Gaule » being, according to some of the figures of Nostradamus, for a common name « gaule » like ‘[the] Rousseau’ for ‘a person with red hair’ (§326, I-7), or inversely a common name ‘senez’ for a proper name ‘Senez’ (§326, I-7); « gaule f. Long thin pole (or) stick, fishing rod, small flag-staff.» (Dubois).

And into Byzantium shall dart bloody pikes:
= And [his allies Britain and France] shall dart bloody pikes into Byzantium: « The Gallipoli campaign was fought to support Russia and knock Turkey out of the war.» (Chasseaud, 2013, p.58); « “... across the ridges of the Gallipoli Peninsula lie some of the shortest paths to a triumphant peace.” (Winston Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, urging the case for a renewed offensive at Gallipoli, 5 June 1915.) Seeking an alternative to the costly stalemate on the Western Front, Britain and France devised a plan to crush Germany’s ally Turkey. British and French warships were to sail through the Dardanelles Straits into the Sea of Marmara, bringing the Turkish capital, Constantinople, under their guns [into Byzantium shall dart bloody pikes]. When the naval attack was made on 18 March, however, three battleships were sunk and consequently it was decided that the Dardanelles Straits should be seized before the navy could pass through. Allied Forces landed at Gallipoli on 25 April, including a large contingent of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps [ANZAC]. Faced with tough Turkish resistance on difficult terrain, they failed to break out of their landing zones. Renewed landings at Suvla Bay in August achieved no greater success. Trench warfare, similar to that in France but with conditions exacerbated by heat and disease, quickly developed. By the time the operation was abandoned in January 1916, the Allied forces had suffered almost a quarter of a million casualties. Success at Gallipoli was a boost to Turkish morale, which was much needed after the Turkish Third Army had been virtually destroyed fighting the Russians in the Caucasus earlier in the year.» (
DKHistory, p.343).
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© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§735 Presidents Loubet and Fallières; Balkan affairs (1899-1913): VIII-93.

VIII-93 (§735):

Just for seven months one shall hold the presidency
On his resigning office shall be born a great division:
For seven months another shall maintain the power
Near Venice shall reappear peace and union.

(Sept moys sans plus obtiendra prelature
Par son deces grand scisme fera naistre:
Sept moys tiendra un autre la preture
Pres de Venise paix union renaistre.
)

NOTES: Prelature: « Prédominance (Predominance). Rang élevé (elevated rank). (Antiq.) Dignité de prêtre, de grand prêtre, de pontife (Dignity of priest, of great priest, of pontiff). Pontificat (Pontificate).» (Huguet)

Preture
: From the Latin « praetor, ōris, m. [praeeō], one who goes before or first; hence a leader, chief, president. At Rome: orig. the name of the chief magistrate of the Roman republic.» (Smith-Lockwood)

Deces
: « Decez. Départ (Departure).» (Huguet), from the Latin « dēcēdō, to move down duly, withdraw, retire, ‘clear out’ (with idea of making way for another).»
(Smith-Lockwood).

Scisme
: « Scisme, v. Schisme.»; « Schisme, Division. On écrit aussi scisme et cisme (Alternative orthographies are scisme and cisme).» 
(Huguet)

Moys (Months)
: « By the words YEAR, MONTH, WEEK, the prophets sometimes want to say simply units of time, which they play to confound, in order to augment the obscurity (Apocalypse, XI. 2, 3, 9, 11, etc.).» (Vignois, 1910, p.454); Cf. §589, V-90: « And the whole peninsula shall hold nine months.»; Nine months: may be understood as nine years, as the other examples in Nostradamus suggest it. In fact, the quatrain VIII-93 twice says « seven months », which is the term of office of the presidency of the third French republic, namely seven years (septennate). It refers to President Loubet (1899-1906) and President Fallières (1906-1913), who are designated with the dictions « prelature » and « preture », both originally meaning « posted in front » (he who sits before = who presides = president) (Vignois, 1910, p.454). We have another example in the quatrain V-18, where it is depicted that the wall of Paris, besieged by Henry IV, shall fall on the seventh day, namely in the seventh year after its denial of the king of France in 1588. In reality, Paris occupied by the League shut out the king Henri III in 1588 and for the first time thereafter opened the gates to the king Henri IV, direct allied successor to Henri III, in 1594, which lapse of time the French used to count as seven years, starting with 1588 which is the first year and finishing with 1594 that is the seventh and last. And the quatrain VII-15 (§212) will literally say about this siege of Paris: « For seven years the siege shall be laid in front of the city in the hands of the League under the controle of the master of the Milanese, i.e. Philip II: The greatest king shall make his entry into it. The city, then, free from his enemies.» And an encyclopedia of world history, particularly concerned with historical dating, describes as follows: «The independence war of Greece: 1821-1829» (Ploetz, p.1080), which means nine years in the French fashion.

Just for seven months one shall hold the presidency On his resigning office shall be born a great division: For seven months another shall maintain the power: « The mandate of Mr. Fallières (February 1906). Mr. Loubet, elected President of the [French] Republic on February 18th, 1899, for a term of seven years, accomplished his mandate a few days after having sanctioned the law of separation of the Church and the State. Mr. Fallières, elected on January 17th [,1906] to take the place of Mr. Loubet, took possession of his charge on February 18th; and as far as one can interprete the Centuries beforehand, it seems probable that he will conserve his high function during the same lapse of time.» (Vignois, id.).

« 1873 May: 24th, L. A. Thiers falls and M. MacMahon is elected French president. Oct: 27th, Comte de Chambord ends hope of restoration of French monarchy by refusing to accept tricolour. Nov: 20th, French monarchists confer M. MacMahon with presidential powers for seven years.» (Williams, 1968, p.290); Cf. §707-§712 (V-36, VI-35, X-57, VI-53, IX-15 and VI-54).
« 1899 Feb: 18th, Émile Loubet is elected President of France (-1906), following Félix Faure’s death.» (id., p.386).
« 1905 Dec: 9th, separation of Church and State in France [On his resigning office shall be born a great division]; complete liberty of conscience.» (id., p.412); « 1905 December 9th Separation of the Churches and of the State: end of the regime of the 1801 Concordat, suppression of the ministry of Worship and of the retribution of the clergy by the State.» (Jouette, p.186).
« 1906 January 17th Armand Fallières is elected President of the Republic.» (id.).
« 1913 January 17th Raymond Poincaré is elected President of the Republic.» (id., p.194).

Near Venice shall reappear union: « The Balkan States [Near Venice] (to 1908) Greece: the National Assembly chose 1863-1913 G
EORGE I (Glücksburg dynasty), ‘King of the Hellenes’ (as to the Greek Independence War (1821-1829), cf. §588, IX-91; §589, V-90; §590, VI-55). After the 1863 British hand-over of the Ionian Islands, the Enosis movement (union of all Greeks) took precedence over attempts at economic development. An uprising on Crete failed (1866). After the acquisition of Thessaly (1881), Macedonia became the object of dispute between Greece and Bulgaria. A 2nd uprising on Crete led to the 1897 Greco-Turkish War with Greek defeats in Thessaly. Nevertheless, Crete gained political autonomy under Turkish sovereignty because of the interference of the great powers. The leader of Enosis, Venizelos (1864-1936), proclaimed the annexation of Crete in 1905. 1908 Formal union of Crete and Greece.» (PenguinAtlas 2, p.81). « Sep. 1908 Union of Crete with Greece. As leader of the Liberal party, VENIZELOS gave momentum to the ‘Greater Greece Movement’.» (id., p.121).

Near Venice shall reappear peace: « The Balkan Crises [Near Venice] (1908-13) The decay of the Ottoman Empire and the far-reaching national ambitions of the new national states with their manifold ethnic, cultural and religious divisions (causing minorities and ‘irredenta’ problems), kept the Balkans in constant unrest. It became the high-tension area of world politics, directly (Austria-Hungary, Italy, Russia) or indirectly (Germany, France, Britain) involving the great powers.
1912-13 Crisis in the Balkans. Unrest in Albania; internal upheavals and weakning of the Turkish position because of the 1911-12 Tripoli War with Italy caused Serbia and Bulgaria to join forces. Encouraged by Russian diplomacy, the 2 states joined in the Mar. 1912 1st Balkan League (directed against Austrian expansion in case of the expected partition of European Turkey). Greece and Montenegro joined the alliance.
Oct. 1912 1st Balkan War: the 4 members of the alliance declared war on Turkey. Severe defeats of the Turks at Kirk Kilisse, Lüleburgaz and near Adrianople (by Bulgaria), at Kumanovo (by Serbia). In consequence, a critical international situation developed: supported by Russia, Serbia demanded access to the Adriatic; Italy opposed this. Italy wished to annex Albania and called for the renewal of the Triple Alliance [Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy]; Greece protested against the occupation of the Dodecanese by Italy (1912). Austia-Hungary objected to any kind of increased power for Serbia or Italy while it backed Bulgaria. Russia, concerned for the last of her Balkan allies and for her policies towards the Straits, looked with apprehension at the pressure exerted by Bulgaria on Serbia and Turkey. At the December London Conference of Ambassadors Gernany and Britain jointly endeavoured to bring about the May 1913 Peace of London: cession of all Turkish territories west of the Enos-Midia line and of all Aegean islands. During the conflicts over the spoils, Bulgaria, overestimating her strength, attacked Serbia.» (
PenguinAtlas 2, p.121).

« June 1913 2nd Balkan War: the intervention of Roumania, Greece, Montenegro and Turkey on the side of Serbia confused the situation completely. Relations between Austria-Hungary and Roumania (already burdened by the presence of a Roumanian minority in Transylvania) cooled because of Austria’s threat to interfere to save Bulgaria; Germany and Italy, however, prevented her from doing so.
August 1913 Peace of Bucharest [shall reappear peace]: Bulgaria lost Macedonia and Dobruja; Crete finally united with Greece; Albania became an autonomous principality.
Consequences: overall disappointment, especially in Serbia, which had been prevented by Austria from reaching the Adriatic Sea. Prevailing friendships and alliances were reinforced; the situation in the Balkans, the ‘powder-keg’ of Europe, remained unstable, and in the July Crisis of 1914, ignited the 1st World War.» (
id.).

Discussion:
There are four cases of the two consecutive 7 year term presidencies completed respectively by 2 different persons in France during the period: 1555-2002 as follows:
1° Loubet-Fallières: 1899-1906-1913.
2° Fallières-Poincaré: 1906-1913-1920.
3° Giscard d’Estaing-Mitterrand: 1974-1981-1988.
4° Mitterrand-Chirac: 1988-1995-2002.

Of these only the first is valid as to the predictions of a great division and of recovery of peace and union by this quatrain. Therefore, the interpretation of the 2nd and 4th verses of the quatrain by P. Guinard recommending the case 2° (2011, p.152) doesn’t ameliorate that of Vignois, for the text: « a great division » is more applicable to the SEPARATION of Church and State than to ‘the 1st World War’, and the term: « union » more precise for ENOSIS of the Greek than for ‘Italian territorial recovery of South Tyrol, Istria and Triest’.
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© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§734 Development of firearms aggravating wars and revolutions (17th – 20th centuries): III-44.

III-44 (§734):

When the animal domestic to men,
After great pains and leaps shall succeed in speaking,
The rod with lightning shall be so malefic,
As territories taken and overturned in air.

(Quand l'animal à l'homme domestique,
Apres grands peines & sauts viendra parler,
Le foudre à vierge sera si malefique,
De terre prinse & suspendue en l'air.
)

NOTES: Many interpreters (Le Pelletier, 1867, I, p.133; Larmor, 1925, p.175; Ward, 1940, p.130; Lamont, 1942, p.89; Ionescu, 1976, p.715; Luni, 1998, p.167) follow Motret (Essai d’explication de deux quatrains de Nostradamus, Paris, 1806) who broke through the invincible wall, upon which this quatrain was projecting a scene hardly understandable in history according to the literal context of the text: « When the Beast familiar to Mankind, After great labour, and leaping shall come to speak, The Lightning shall be so hurtful to a Virgin, That she shall be taken from the Earth, and suspended in the Air.» (Garancières, 1672, p.65).

Motret’s great merit was his disclosure of the meaning embedded in the French word chien (a dog), which he induced from the phrase: the animal domestic to men, and which can sometimes mean chien de fusil (a dog of gun, i.e. cock or hammer of firearms in English) (Motret, 1806, p.45-46). This type of gunlock is called a flint-lock succeeding in the 17th century a match-lock and a wheel-lock of the 16th century and thereafter in the 19th century succeeded by a modernest percussion-lock (id. p.45-48; EH, VII, p.431-432).

« The gun (fusil) that made take a new face to the artillery and a flint-lock of a gun (chien de fusil) are of the same date.» (Motret, id., p.48); « FUSIL (GUN). Signifies properly “a piece of steel with which one strikes a flint in order to make thence eject sparks”, whence “the piece of steel covering the pan of old-style firearms and against which comes to strike the flint of the system”, then “a portable firearm”. Vulgar Latin *focīlis (petra ‘stone’ is understood), derived from focus ‘fire’, properly “that which produces fire”.» 
(Bloch & Wartburg).

Speaking: = Automatized reiterative firing like a human speaker’s articulation. In fact, a single ‘noise (bruit)’, as Motret wants to explain as to the firing of a gun, can’t be called speaking in its proper sense.

Le foudre à vierge (literally the lightning at or in a rod, i.e. the rod with lightning): = An image of a gun (un fusil), the rod being identified with the barrel. The French word vierge, properly meaning a virgin, may be understood here as verge (a rod), vierge and verge being in Latin virgō and virga respectively, and they seem to be of the same root: « virga, ae, f. [perhaps from same root as virgō] a twig, sprout, switch; a rod, switch for flogging; a staff, walking-stick; a magic wand.» (Smith-Lockwood).

De: The preposition of manner: e.g. « d’un pas vif, with a quick step.» (Dubois).

Terre prinse & suspendue en l'air (territories taken and overturned in the air): = Territories conquered and territories upset in the air (revolutionized).

Automatic Firearms in the Wartime:
1° « 1862. The first machine gun with manual crank Gatling, employed by the Union in the American Civil War.» (Asimov, 1996, p.253).

2° « 1883. The totally automatized machine gun Maxim invented in England, employed in Africa and Asia in favour of the European preponderance over the natives.» (id., p.280-281).

3° « 1911. The Lewis gun, the most effective light machine gun in the World War I and more than a hundred thousand ones manufactured for the Allies.» (MaruzenED, p.494).

4° « 1930’s. The Bren light machine gun, employed as standard equipments of almost all the Allies in the World War II.» (id., p.495).

5°« 1930’s. The Stengun, of very low cost and more than two million ones produced for the World War II.» (id.).

6° « The Browning FN pistol, widely employed as British standard equipments of automatic handgun in the World War II.» (id.).
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© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved. 

§733 The Messina-Reggio Earthquake of December 28, 1908 (2): VIII-84.

 VIII-84 (§733):

The Pope shall hear cries of Sicily,
All the reserves of the gulf of Trieste,
That shall be heard even in the Three-Caps.
So many ships free yourselves from the horrible plague.

(Paterne orra de la Sicile crie,
Tous les aprests du goulphre de Trieste,
Qui s'entendra jusques à la trinacrie.
De tant de voiles fuy, fuy l'horrible peste.
) (№ 10)

NOTES: Paterne: The Pope Pius X; « PATERNE (du latin paternus, paternel), the Pope.» (Vignois, 1910, p.459).

Orra: « future of the verb ouïr, entendre (to hear).»
(Vignois, id.).

Crie: = grand cri (cries); « crie, s.f., proclamation (proclamation), cri public (public cry).» (Godefroy).

Aprests: = Reserves; « apreste, s.f., apprêt (preparation), préparatif (preparative).» (Godefroy).

The gulf of Trieste: representing the whole Adriatic Sea, which in its turn symbolizes the Adriatic coasts of Italy far from the damaged South-West. The featuring of the name of Trieste, which is condemned by P. Guinard as irrelevant to the theme of the earthquake of the south-west Italy (Guinard, 2011, p.137), implies effectively that even the Adriatic districts of the Balkan Peninsula far off the epicenter of the earthquake experienced in fact the quake of the earth: « Early in the morning on 28 December 1908, just a few days after Christmas, a severe earthquake struck the Messina Straits, a rather narrow sound that separates Sicily from Calabria, in southern Italy. The shaking was distinctly felt in Albania, Montenegro and the Greek Ionian islands, about 400 km to the east and northeast of the Straits; in Malta, about 250 km to the south; and as far as Ustica Island, about 220 km to the west.» (Pino et al., 2008, Introduction).

All the reserves of the gulf of Trieste: The reserved money and necessities of the compatriots of the Adriatic coasts to be offered in aid of the suffering.

The Pope shall hear cries of Sicily, All the reserves of the gulf of Trieste: « The earthquake of Messina ... three o’clock in the morning, an earthquake destroyed in thirty seconds the cities of Reggio and of Messina. Pius X was the first who sent the relief and the total sum he made reach with the aid of the Catholics amounted to almost 7 million francs. » (Vignois, 1910, p.459).

The Pope Pius X: « All the calamities that befell the world awakened his sympathy, earthquakes, floods, fires, railway accidents, no matter what. The sufferers were comforted with kind words, and as far as possible with material help. It rejoiced him on these occasions to hear of acts of heroism, of Christian charity, and of piety. Even the papers and those least favourable to the Church noticed his personal and fatherly interest in the joys and sorrows of his people. His appeal to the charity of Catholics on the occasion of the Calabrian earthquake in 1908, which in few moments totally destroyed Messina, Reggio, Sille and the surrounding villages, burying more than 100,000 people in the ruins, met with magnificent response. The sum of 7,000,000 francs, which was generously offered, served to supply the immediate needs of the unfortunate survivors, who in many cases were left totally destitute. But it was not only to make others give that the Holy Father exerted himself; he gave himself to the utmost of his power. The very day after the Messina disaster he sent number of men with Monsignor Cottafavi at their head to investigate and report, to search out the victims most urgently in need of help and care and to bring them to Rome. Trainloads of sufferers arrived daily and were taken to the Papal hospice of Santa Marta, the Pope making himself responsible for over five hundred orphans. His Christlike compassion, his grand initiative and masterly organisation of relief, won burst of praise in which even the anti-clerical Syndic of Rome joined; while the nations of Europe expressed their admiration. This Pope, of whom it was said that his sole policy was the Gospel and the Creed, and his sole diplomacy the Ten Commandments, fired the imagination of the world by his apostolic fearlessness, his humility, his simplicity, and single-minded faith."» (Forbes, 1918, p.146-147)

That shall be heard or extended (Qui s’entendra): The French verb entendre has two senses in Nostradamus as « ouïr (to hear), écouter (to listen)» (I-15, IV-49, V-53, VI-29 and VII-23) or as « tendre (to stretch), étendre (to extend)» (§130, IX-81: Le Roy rusé entendra ses embusches).

The Three-Caps (la Trinacrie): = « Sicily, because of its three caps by which it is terminated.» (Vognois, id.). In the context of the quatrain, the Three-Caps indicates in fact the two (western and southern) remoter from the Straits, the one (northern) being near there.

Cries of Sicily, That shall be heard
[or extended] even in the remoter districts of Sicily: « They said terrifying the cries of the survivors buried beneath the ruins and of the half-nacked and starving miserables when they distributed to them clothings and foods.» (Vognois, id.); « Messina, while by far the greatest sufferer, was not the only city devastated. The gruesome roll of the dead elsewhere in the stricken region equalled, in the aggregate, if it did not exceed that of the city by the straits.» (Mowbray, c1909, p.76).; « The earthquake was catastrophic in the epicentral area and was immediately followed by fires and by a large tsunami. Messina (Sicily) and Reggio Calabria (Calabria), two significant cities located less than 10 km apart on the two facing shores of the Straits, were almost completely destroyed and buildings were severely damaged over an area in excess of 6,000 km2. A significant fraction of the population, numbering 140,000 at Messina and 45,000 at Reggio Calabria, was reported dead. Assessing the total number of victims has been problematic, as fatality estimates range from 60,000 to over 100,000, yet 1908 was undeniably the deadliest European earthquake ever and one of the deadliest worldwide.» (Pino et al., id.).

The horrible plague
: « EARTHQUAKE disasters have followed each other with appalling frequency throughout the centuries, and have, as in the dreadful Italian catastrophe, proved a scourge of plague proportions; ... » (Mowbray, c1909, p.vii).

So many ships free yourselves from the horrible plague
: « This cataclysm that shocked so hard the whole Italy had as its central point the straits which separates Calabria from Sicily; it is the passage indispensable to all the ships connecting occidental Europe and the Levant.» (Vignois, id.); « Guidoboni et al. [2007] contend that 80,000 people were killed by the earthquake, including as many as 2,000 who died as a result of the tsunami. Waves up to 12 meters struck the shorelines south of Messina and south of Reggio Calabria, completing the destruction and displacing the rubble from collapsed buildings. All communications in the affected area were disrupted, and rescue operations had to rely on access from the sea.» (Pino et al., id.).

« “Help is arriving constantly from Catania and Palermo by sea to relieve the thirst and famine. The whole Calabrian shore for a distance of nearly thirty miles was torn and twisted by the convulsions of the earth and sea. Neither bridges nor ferryboats exist, all having been destroyed. The town of Villa San Giovanni was destroyed, and Scilla, Pizzo and Bagnara shared its fate, in each case the havoc of the earthquake being completed by the outbreak of fire.”» (Mowbray, c1909, p.72).

« A relief train dispatched toward Messina in the hope of aiding the earthquake sufferers was forced to return, being able to go only within ten miles of the stricken city on account of demolished tracks. The engineer said that all houses along the route showed effects of the earthquake. A torpedo boat on a similar mission was forced to return. While the destruction was due primarly to the earthquake, the tidal wave caused enormous damage. In the narrow strait the water formed into a huge wave forty feet high. It then drew back from the coast as if gathering strength for an onslaught that would obliterate the land. So violent was the motion of the atmosphere coincident with the tidal wave that several workmen engaged in digging a pit on the Calabrian side of the strait were carried bodily up into the air. Suddenly stopping in their backward sweep, the waters of the strait hurled themselves up on two coasts. Inexorably they advanced, and piers, houses and gardens were swallowed up in the flood. At some places on the coast of Sicily the waters swept over the earth for a distance of ten miles. The ground for a great distance trembled under the shock of the impact. A naval officer who witnessed this aweinspiring spectacle described it in these words: "It seemed as if two mountains, one of water and the other of land, fell furiously, the one towards the other, and as if the land vomited human habitations into the sea." At Catania, scarcely had the first spasm of terror passed when the tidal wave spent[sped] in from the sea. Shouts of warning arose, and the people, who had just fled from their houses, ran shrieking away from the docks and water front into the towns where a minute before the danger had seemed greatest. Where the sailors could get ashore, vessels of all kinds were abandoned[So many ships free yourselves from the horrible plague]. The waters came and left devastation in their wake. Many perished, but the water's rush carried everything before it. Scores of fishing boats were swamped, and steamships in the harbor were damaged.» (Mowbray, id., p.86-87).

Discussion:
P. Guinard proposes an alternative interpretation of this quatrain, but his conception of the word « voile », not as « ship », but as an old French « voil = désir (desire), volonté (will) » (Guinard, 2011, p.136) cannot find its lexicographical ground. For, the old French voil has indeed two meanings of « volonté (will), désir (desire)» and « voile d’un bateau (sail of a ship)» (Godefroy), but the text is undoubtedly « voile » which cannot be « voil » in any way. Then, his favorable maneuver of appeau voile (decoy-bird sail/will) cannot stand any more.
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© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§732 The Messina-Reggio Earthquake of December 28, 1908: IX-61.

IX-61 (§732):

The pillage done to the marine coast,
And relatives brought into Naples
Some of Malta by the fact of Messina,
Being extremely tightened shall be hardly compensated.

(La pille faicte à la coste marine,
In cita nova & parenz amenez
Plusieurs de Malte par le fait de Messine,
Estroit serrez seront mal guerdonnez.
)

NOTES: The pillage done to the marine coast: « Hundred years ago, on December 28 [Monday], at 5 h 20 m 23 s, an earthquake of magnitude 7, followed by a tsunami, destroyed in 20 s the cities of Messina and Reggio Calabria, causing nearly 100 thousand deaths... The earthquake was recorded at 110 stations worldwide and was followed by a tsunami with a maximum sea-wave height of 12 m at Sant’Alessio on the Calabrian coast, and penetrating there 200 m into the land... Two famous witnesses were the Russian writer Maxim Gorkij and the German geophysicist Wilhelm Meyer, who were at Capri at the moment of the earthquake and arrived in Messina on January 1, 1909. Their accounts provide a realistic and dramatic description of the events... The Czech wood-engraving (xylography) illustration (see Fig. 1) of the effects of the 1908 Messina earthquake comes from a non-identified printed source published in 1909. The title states “Terrible earthquake in southern Italy” while the sub-title given under the image states: “The horror-full night of December 28 in the Messina town. Stormy sea waters flooded the town ruined by the earthquake and definitively destroyed all what yet remained.” There were numerous reports which appeared immediately after the earthquake. The journal Nature published several articles. We provide the following most interesting extracts in italics: … the first intimation of the disturbance was a prolonged, thunderous noise followed by a vivid flash of lightning, and at the same time by a series of violent shocks which seemed interminable. Heavy torrential rain then fell … On Tuesday [December 29], the officer of a torpedo-boat who left Messina for Reggio sent after a few hours the following message: “I cannot see Reggio; if it exists, it is no longer where it was.” (Nature, Vol. 79, No. 2045, December 31, 1908, p. 255)... On January 7, 1909, Nature published records obtained by the Milne seismograph at Kew (UK), 2000 km away. The signal arrived on December 28 at 4 h 23.6 m (GMT) and the maximum amplitude at 4 h 31.1 m. For the first time, the declination magnetograph recorded several distinct burrs (C. Chree, Nature, Vol. 79, No. 2045, January 7, 1909, p. 280). Another article described the events: The earthquake was … as great as either of the celebrated earthquakes in 1783, which caused 40000 deaths in the same districts. ... the nature [of the sea wave] of which is indicated by the narrative of the captain of the Hopewell; according to him, the boat, which was passing through the Straits at the time of the earthquake, seemed to leap into the air, as if a mine had exploded underneath her, and immediately afterwards a mountain of water was heaped up to starboard and rushed furiously towards Messina, while soundings showed that the bed of the sea had risen ten feet … it is of a nature of a gradually increasing strain, leading, in the end, to sudden rupture and the setting free of forces of which we still know little (R. D. O., Nature, Vol. 79, No. 2045, January 7, 1909, p. 287-288). About the Sea wave: A man who was just embarking on a ferry-boat to go from Messina to Reggio when the shock occurred describes how the level of the water seemed suddenly to descend until the ferry touched the bottom, and then rose to a great height again - he says eight yards - hurling the ferry-boat on the landing pier, which smashed it to pieces. About the affected area: At Reggio the destruction seems to be even more complete than at Messina, for the whole of the city has been razed to the ground … The prefect of Reggio states that the centre of the town has settled down to the sea-level... Prof. Rizzo (from the Messina Observatory) noticed that several boats anchored some distance from shore were left high and dry. On the other hand, the ground has sunk in some places in the city, notably near the Municipal Palace and Via Seminario, where in one place it has fallen eleven yards (Nature, Vol. 79, No. 2045, January 7, 1909, p. 288-289). E. Oddone from the Observatory of Messina indicated that the subterranean chamber has escaped harm, and the Vicentini seismograph recorded the event … the earthquake began with a very slight shock, which was repeated. It increased in violence for ten seconds, and then grew less severe for another ten seconds. After these movements ten minutes passed without disturbances. A second shock of much greater intensity, and accompanied by loud subterranean rumbling, followed, and was the cause of the catastrophe (Nature, Vol. 79, No. 2046, January 14, 1909, p. 316)... The Russian and English fleets were at the Strait and went immediately to Messina to provide the first aids and rescue the survivors. The Italian torpedo-boats “Sapfo” and“Piemonte”, who were at the port at the moment of the earthquake, rescued more than 400 people. The Russian writer M. Gorkij (or Gorki) and the German geophysicist M.W. Meyer were living at Capri and arrived in Messina four days after the disaster (Meyer and Gorkij, 1909; Gorkij and Meyer, 2005). As a writer, Gorkij captured the overwhelming dramatism of the event: a huge wave raises in the sky and, covered by a white foam, it bends, crushes and falls towards the shore, wrapping, with its tremendous weight, corpses, buildings and ruins, crushing, drowning and, without breaking against the shore, it spreads and drags with it all that it touches: ships, doors, furniture, women, children, priests, workers, soldiers, students and, finally retreating, it sucks everything towards the sea, launching it over the rocks, killing who is still alive.» (Carcione and Kozák, 2008, p.661-667).

Cita nova: « Ordinarily, the new city (cita nova) is Naples (Neapolis).» (Clébert, 2003, p.1019).

And relatives brought into Naples: « The commander of the Russian cruiser Admiral Makaroff, after it had arrived at Naples with refugees from Messina, gave the following account of the disaster: "Hearing at Agoata, Sicily, of the disaster, I hurried to Messina. The city was literally nothing but a heap of ruins. Every building collapsed, but in many cases the outward shells remained standing and as a result the general contour of the city was less changed than might be expected. "This is particularly true of the sea front. In spite of what has been said, the form of the Straits of Messina show little if any change. "The harbor is filled with refuse of every kind, and at one end lies the wreck of a sunken steamship. "It is impossible to give even a faint idea of the desolation of the scene. Every now and then we heard the crash of falling floors and walls. This constituted the greatest danger to the rescuers. It was not safe to approach any standing masonry. Men from my vessel had many narrow escapes, and I saw several terrible accidents to the brave Italian soldiers, who were doing more than their duty. "We lost no time in setting about the work of rescue. We established an open-air hospital on the shore, where we received and treated 1,000 men, women and children. We also saved the safe of the Bank of Sicily with its treasure, weighing two tons. "The mind shrinks from contemplation of the present condition in the stricken city; that there are thousands of persons still alive in the ruins, and that countless numbers must die. 'The tidal wave lasted much longer than the earthquake. During all the time we were in the harbor of Messina our vessel shivered intermittently, as though shaken by some huge marine monster. "I could relate pathetic stories without number. Under some wreckage, inclosed in a kind of little cubby-hole and protected by two heavy beams, I discovered two little babies, safe and uninjured. They were comfortable as possible, and laughing and playing with the buttons on their clothes. We could find no trace of their parents, who undoubtedly lost their lives. It made a terrible impression to see the bereaved children."» (Mowbray, c1909, p.49-50).

Guerdonnez
: « guerredoner, v.a., récompenser (to recompense), donner une récompense pour (to reward for).»; « guerredon, s.m., prix d’un service, d’une bonne action (price of a service, of a good action), salaire (salary), récompense (recompense).» (Godefroy).

Some of Malta by the fact of Messina, Being extremely tightened shall be hardly compensated
: These verses seem to express a commercial or economic damage (hardly compensated) upon some of the inhabitants of Malta scarcely suffered immediately from the earthquake itself, due to the collapse of the cities of Messina and Reggio Calabria, the unified center of a large local zone of economy embracing Malta (Being extremely tightened).  

« "Help from the outer world is at last beginning to reach the stricken city. The British armored cruiser Sutler steamed in from Malta and was followed by the Russian battleships Slava and Tsaritsa and the armored cruiser Admiral Makaroff. The officers and men of the two navies gave every possible aid, yet their task is a fearful one. "Under the pelting rain open-air hospitals are being." The garrison in Messina perished in the ruins and persons who survive unhurt cannot escape from the vast smoldering tomb in which their kinsmen, wives, husbands, parents and children lie. The sea is closed to them for want of ships and they are suffering from the cruel extremities of hunger and thirst. "Here and there they can be seen searching eagerly for some morsels to eat or water to drink, but the heaps of dust and debris yield them nothing. At every turn some lamentable scene meets the eye, men and women half naked and terribly injured imploring relief. " The hospital and chemists shops have disappeared and there are neither drugs nor surgical instruments. The Government officials from Catania are doing their utmost. The Catania fire brigade also arrived and is working with the Russian sailors to extinguish the fires. "An Italian battleship reached Messina to-day and landed seamen and soldiers, while troops are on the way from Catania and Naples."» (Mowbray, c1909, p.70).

« "Help is arriving constantly from Catania and Palermo by sea to relieve the thirst and famine. The whole Calabrian shore for a distance of nearly thirty miles was torn and twisted by the convulsions of the earth and sea. Neither bridges nor ferryboats exist, all having been destroyed." The town of Villa San Giovanni was destroyed, and Scilla, Pizzo and Bagnara shared its fate, in each case the havoc of the earthquake being completed by the outbreak of fire."» (Mowbray, id., p.72).

« Messina, while by far the greatest sufferer, was not the only city devastated. The gruesome roll of the dead elsewhere in the stricken region equalled, in the aggregate, if it did not exceed that of the city by the straits. Messina had more property loss than any other one point. More men, women and children's lives were ground out there than in any other city. But that was only because Messina was the most populous town in the stricken region —in that gory belt of death that stretched from the heart of the isle of Sicily northeastwards under the Straits of Messina and through the centre of Calabria, the most southerly of the provinces, or states, of the Kingdom of Italy. In Messina, horrible as was the disaster, one person in ten escaped the holocaust. In many of the smaller towns and villages within the range of many miles, not a human being lived to tell the tale when the sun rose on that memorable 28th day of December, 1908. Messina's prominence in the annals of the disaster is due more largely to the fact of its great size and reputation throughout the world than to the completeness of its destruction or to the proportionate loss of life. » (Mowbray, id., p.76).
« Next to Messina, the quaint and beautiful city of Reggio di Calabria was the greatest sufferer. This charming town, the capital of the province of Calabria, lay nestled at the water's edge on the mainland, some eight miles or so to the southeast and across the straits. When Messina collapsed, steamships hastily put out to cross the straits for help. Half way over they met scarred and battered ships from the other coast, carrying the news that Reggio, too, had perished. And that before the terrible tidal wave that dashed from the opposite Sicilian shores had engulfed the city and had buried beneath its foaming crest almost all of what had remained of the city's fifty thousand inhabitants. Reggio, before the shock, was a live and prosperous port, and one of the most ancient cities of Italy. It was embalmed in the annals of history long before the Christian era, when it bore the name of Rhegium. Previous shocks of earthquake, especially the great one of 1783, had left its scars upon the ancient palaces and the cathedral, but until that one terrible day in the Christmas week of 1908 it still nestled in fancied security at the foot of grim Montalto, which reared its vine-clad head almost five thousand feet towards the heavens to the back of the town. To-day, the city is in utter ruin, ruin as complete as that which wiped Messina off the map. Yes, worse ! For the tidal wave here swept over the entire town, so deep that the bodies of fish were found, after the death-dealing flood finally had receded, as high up as the third floors of a number of houses that were so sturdily built that their shells at least were able to defy not only earthquake, but flood and flame. The tidal wave that swept into Reggio flooded the city to a depth of many feet above sea level. Some of the houses along the water front were swept from their foundations and dragged out to sea. Twelve miles of the railroad near Reggio were destroyed. The tempest added to the terror of the scene. The few Reggio survivors wandered nude and demented about the ruins of the city searching for food. Practically all the pupils of the Reggio College perished. The little villas located on the heights alone escaped destruction. A group of travelers who were at the railroad station, awaiting the arrival of a train, were crushed under the debris of the building. All the railroad stations in a radius of twelve miles from Reggio were destroyed. The sea front was entirely swept away —so thoroughly undulated that for days seamen familiar with the coast from childhood could not recognize the place and believed that Reggio never had emerged from the waves. And yet there was much ground for this belief. The ruins of Reggio finally did emerge. But it was ruins only. For days it was impossible to approach the site by either sea or land. For a distance of twelve miles from the city, roads, bridges and footpaths were destroyed. Even the face of the country was changed. » (Mowbray, id., p.76-78).
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© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§731(sequel-5) The age of re-innovation is at hand (the first year of the 20th century): I-16.

I-16 (§731 sequel-5).

I-16 (§731):
Scythe to the pond joined toward Sagittarius
In its high APSIDE of the exaltation,
Plague, famine, death from military hand:
The age of renovation is at hand.

(Faulx a l'estang joinct vers le Sagitaire
En son hault A V G E de l'exaltation,
Peste, famine, mort de main militaire:
Le siecle approche de renovation.
)

g) The significance of the epoch: 1st May 1901 01:27 – 30 August 1901 22:59.

What does it mean, at last, the second hemistich of the quatrain: « Plague, famine, death from military hand: The age of renovation is at hand » ?

First of all
, the last verse: « The age approaches renovation (Le siecle approche de renovation) » can be and must be read as follows: « The age of renovation approaches (Le siecle de renovation approche) ». Such figure of dislocation of the words to be replaced is familiar to Nostradamus (e.g., §9, II-31, v.2; §14, IV-67, v.3; §15, IV-91, v.4; §28, I0:00-29, v.4; §32, I0:00-40, v.3; §40, II-42, v.1; §41, VII-38, v.2; §74, V-23, v.1; §83, V-27, v.4; §84, II-49, v.2-3; §107, III-64, v.1-3; §343, I-54, v.1, 2, 3-4; §398, V-71, v.2-4; §604, V-4, v.3; §624, VIII-82, v.4; §627, III-17, v.1; §631, V-6, v.1-2; §656, VIII-8, v.1-3, etc.), and a totally literal reading: « The age comes nearer to renovation (Le siecle approche de renovation) » is difficult to understand adequately because of the discrepancy of one category: time (age) and another category: change (renovation). In fact, TIME is where a CHANGE is to be perceived to take place, but TIME itself does not change because it is an indispensable and unchangeable measure of change in general: BEFORE and AFTER ( « When we note something “before” and something “after”, then we acknowledge time. For this is what time is: the number of precessions and successions in process. » – Aristotle, Physics, 219b1-2, tr. by Richard Hope, University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln, 1961, p.80). Ordinarily, people confound CHANGE with TIME and say that “ it’s up to us to innovate the times,” etc, but it’s a mere synecdoche invented upon the fact that TIME and CHANGE are always accompanying one another.

Therefore, the statement: « The age approaches renovation » must be identified with the one modified according to the strict rule of categories: « The age approaches an age of renovation » and this is what one intends in truth to mean by the ordinary statement in question. Then,
« The age of renovation (le siecle de renovation) » is to be commenced with the year of 1901, the determined epoch of the preceding verses. So the age of renovation is to be the 20th century.

N.B. If one can say that he sees a kind of movement in the expression: “The age approaches an age of renovation”, for the word “approaches” is indicating without doubt a kind of movement or change. But this is just an example of expessing the so-called change of time, namely the change of numbers of preceding and succeeding steps involved. In fact, the word  “approaches” is a metaphor for additional or subtractive change of time-numbers or time-quantities borrowed from the concrete change of distance in space. In short, the so-called change of time is a change of numbers of a kind, which is not in principle a kind of movement except in mind or in computers.

R
enovation = Repetition or reiteration of innovations, the prefix RE-, -, R- expressing sometimes the repetition (Petit Robert).

It is just the eventful 20th century that the last verse of the quatrain announces. It is nothing but the historical worldwide totality of the 20th century in terms of « Plague, famine, death from military hand » with plenty of discoveries and creations in science, technology, society and politics; the term plague in Nostradamus signifies a sort of moral or mental and social disorder such as pernicious political ideology (Stalinism), inhuman collective mentality (Nazism); death from military hand is not other than a large number of victims of the two World Wars; and famine indicates the dearth on earth owing to these wars and at the same time to the world-wide financial panics. We will see later on in this article about the 20th century the analytical contents of the age of reiterated innovations.

Discussion:
1) About the date to identify:
In default of the sheer reading of the texts of Nostradamus according to the French grammar, V. Ionescu arrived at the date of May-June 1991 implying the collapse of the Russian communism in 1991 (Ionescu, 1976, p.779-782), D. Ovason at that of the French Revolution in 1789 (Ovason, 1997, p.94) and P. Guinard at the date of 1842-7-20 especially in default of precise astronomical analyses of the aphelion of Saturn in favour of his traditional cyclic astrology (Guinard, Le quatrain I.16 et l'annonce de la chute définitive de la Monarchie (1842-1848), Corpus Nostradamus 63, CURA, 2007-2015).

2) About the phrase « En son haut AVGE »:
In order to compensate their technical deficiency in astronomy, Ionescu and Guinard seem to appeal to the word AVGE, which they understand as a remarkabl anagram of a brilliant fixed star VEGA. And they say in unanimity that the star Vega above the conjunction of two planets is positionned almost exactly between them (Ionescu, id.; Guinard, id.).

But, even if the term « hault » is a substantive, the phrase « En son hault (At or In its height) » cannot signify the situation of « au-dessus de ~ (above ~) » because « its height » is « a superior part of it », on the other hand « something above it » is not a part of it. And in this quatrain, if one admets that the personal possessive pronoun « son (its, his or her) » refers to Saturn (Faulx), Vega cannnot be « in a superior part of Saturn », and if one supposes that the personal possessive pronoun « son (its, his or her) » refers to Vega itself, Vega itself also cannnot be « in a superior part of Vega ».  

In conclusion, the word « hault (high) » is to be best understood as an adjective qualifying AVGE to make a group of words:  « En son hault AVGE » (At or In the high APSIS of Saturn, namely At the APHELION of Saturn).
_______________________________________
© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§731(sequel-4) The age of re-innovation is at hand (the first year of the 20th century): I-16.

I-16 (§731 sequel-4).

e) The cases legitimate for the condition of the common retrogradation of Saturn and Jupiter in loose conjunction and for the condition of Saturn’s aphelion in Capricorn are as follows:

Table §731g: The screened cases (validly extended).

Year

M
o
n
th

Day

Hour:

LMT
at
Paris (2.4º E, 48.9º N)

Aphelion (heliocentric)

by Horizons:

OM + W + PG

+ 180°.

Hour: CT + 00:09:36

( ): geocentric longitude of Saturn.

1901

5

1

01:271

271°.0764 (286º 22ʹ)

1901

6

1

0:00

270°.9906 (285º 24ʹ)

1901

7

10

0:00

270°.6536 (282º 47ʹ)

1901

8

10

0:00

270.4916 (280º 46ʹ)

1901

8

19

2:00

270°.6760 (280º 20ʹ)

1901

8

21

0:00

270°.5602 (280º 16ʹ)

1901

8

21

5:00

270°.5495 (280º 15ʹ)

1901

8

22

0:00

270°.5080 (280º 14ʹ)

1901

8

25

0:00

270°.4039 (280º 07ʹ)

1901

8

30

22:59

270°.6476 (279° 57ʹ)

1961

8

12

7:26

270°.0337 (294° 52ʹ)

1961

8

12

10:47

270°.0278 (294° 51ʹ)

1961

8

12

18:00

270°.0121 (294° 50ʹ)

1961

8

12

21:00

270.0043 (294°49ʹ)

1961

8

12

22:00

270.0016 (294°49ʹ)

1961

8

12

22:30

270.0003 (294° 49ʹ)

1961

8

12

22:35

270.00001 (294° 49ʹ)

1961

8

12

22:37

270.00004 (294° 49ʹ)

1961

8

12

22:38

270.00000 (294° 49ʹ)

1961

8

12

22:39

269.9999 n/a

1961

8

12

22:40

269.9998 n/a

 

f) How is Saturn (in retrogradation in Capricorn in loose conjunction with Jupiter) at its aphelion during the period: 1555-2000 ?

As to a stay of Saturn at its aphelion or an elongation of Saturn from its aphelion, it is necessary previously to coordinate somehow rigorously the geocentric longitudes of Saturn with the heliocentric longitudes of aphelion of Saturn.

Now, it is to be recalled that a heliocentric longitude of Saturn is the sum of OM (OMEGA: longitude of the ascendant node, in degrees) + W (w, argument of the perifocus = argument of the perihelion, in degrees) + TA (true anomaly, in degrees) (Saito, id., p.38-39). And the data with the reference epoch of J2000.0 (: JD = 2451545.0) are converted into those of the reference epoch of 1900 I 1.5 UT (: JD = 2415021.0) by subtraction of GP (general precession) (Nagasawa, id., p.155).

Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System provides us with OM, W and TA (J2000.0) to get heliocentric longitudes of Saturn as follows:

Table §731h: Heliocentric data of Saturn by Horizons.

Year

M
o
n
th

Day

Hour:
LMT
at
Paris (2.4º E, 48.9º
N).

TA

OM

GP

W

1901

5

1

01:27

190.0169

113.9450

-1.3775

338.5090

1901

6

1

0:00

191.0352

113.9492

-1.3763

338.4177

1901

7

10

0:00

192.5479

113.9309

-1.3748

338.0975

1901

8

10

0:00

193.6450

113.9305

-1.3736

337.9347

1901

8

19

2:00

193.7345

113.9504

-1.3733

338.0989

1901

8

21

0:00

193.9082

113.9420

-1.3732

337.9914

1901

8

21

5:00

193.9251

113.9412

-1.3732

337.9815

1901

8

22

0:00

193.9905

113.9381

-1.3732

337.9431

1901

8

25

0:00

194.1853

113.9300

-1.3730

337.8469

1901

8

30

22:59

194.1212

113.9501

-1.3728

338.0704

1961

8

12

7:26

207.2342

113.7644

-0.5359

336.8052

1961

8

12

10:47

207.2444

113.7645

-0.5359

336.7992

1961

8

12

22:30

207.2867

113.7651

-0.5359

336.7710

1961

8

12

22:35

207.2871

113.7651

-0.5359

336.7708

1961

8

12

22:37

207.2872

113.7652

-0.5359

336.7707

1961

8

12

22:38

207.2873

113.7652

-0.5359

336.7707

1961

8

12

22 :39

207.2873

113.7652

-0.5359

336.7706

1961

8

12

22 :40

207.2874

113.7652

-0.5359

336.7706


Table §731i: Heliocentric longitudes and aphelions of Saturn.

Year

M
o
n
th

D
a
y

Hour:
LMT
at Paris
(2.4º
E,
48.9º
N)

Aphelion
(heliocentric)
by Horizons:
OM + W +
PG + 180°.
Hour: CT +
00:09:36

( ): geocentric
longitude of
Saturn

Longitude
of Saturn
(heliocentric):
OM + W +
TA + PG
(reduced
to 0° - 360°).
Hour: CT +
00:09:36
[ ]: by Stella-
Navigator.
∆: Elongation
of Saturn
from its
aphelion

1901

5

1

01:27

271°.0764
(286º 22ʹ)

281°.0934
[281° 06ʹ]
∆10°.0169

1901

6

1

0:00

270°.9906
(285º 24)

282°.0258
[282° 03ʹ]
∆11°.0352

1901

7

10

0:00

270°.6536
(282º 47ʹ)

283.°2015
[283° 13ʹ]
∆12°.5479

1901

8

10

0:00

270.4916
(280º 46ʹ)

284°.1366
[284° 09ʹ]
∆13°.6450

1901

8

19

2:00

270°.6760
(280º 20ʹ)

284°.4105
[284° 25ʹ]
∆13°.7345

1901

8

21

0:00

270°.5602
(280º 16ʹ)

284°.4684
[284° 29ʹ]
∆13°.9082

1901

8

21

5:00

270°.5495
(280º 15ʹ)

284°.4746
[284° 29ʹ]
∆13°.9251

1901

8

22

0:00

270°.5080
(280º 14ʹ)

284°.4985
[284° 31ʹ]
∆13°.9905

1901

8

25

0:00

270°.4039
(280º 07ʹ)

284°.5892
[284° 36ʹ]
∆14°.1853
[max.]

1901

8

30

22:59

270°.6476
(279° 57ʹ)

284°.7689
[284° 46ʹ]
∆14°.1213

1961

8

12

7:26

270°.0337
(294° 52ʹ)

297°.2679
[297° 16ʹ]
∆27°.2342
[minimum]

1961

8

12

10:47

270°.0278
(294° 51ʹ)

297°.2722
[297° 16ʹ]
∆27°.2444

1961

8

12

22:30

270.0003
(294° 49ʹ)

297°.2869
[297° 17ʹ]
∆27°.2866

1961

8

12

22:35

270.00001
(294° 49ʹ)

297°.2871
[297° 17ʹ]
∆27°.2871

1961

8

12

22:37

270.00004
(294° 49ʹ)

297°.2872
[297° 17ʹ]
∆27°.2872

1961

8

12

22:38

270.00000
(294° 49ʹ )

297°.2873
[297° 17ʹ]
∆27°.2873

1961

8

12

22:39

269.9999
n/a

297°.2872

1961

8

12

22:40

269.9998
n/a

297°.2873

 

It is thoroughly evident through the table above that the cases of the year 1901 are more valid than those of the year 1961 as to the proximate elongation of Saturn from its aphelion. In fact, even the maximum elongation of the year 1901: 14°.1853 is smaller than the minimum of the year 1961: 27°.2342 by over 13°, as shown roughly in the following drawing of mine and precisely in the following two images of the solar system produced by StellaNavigator:

[1901-8-13 10:20, 1961-8-12 22:30]
Saturn g
Legend:
γ: The vernal equinox.
S: The Sun at 1901-8-13 10:20 and at 1961-8-12 22:30.
E: The Earth at 1901-8-13 10:20 and at 1961-8-12 22:30.
A1: Saturn’s aphelion at 1901-8-13 10:20.
A2: Saturn’s aphelion at 1961-8-12 22:30.
St1: Saturn at 1901-8-13 10:20.
St2: Saturn at 1961-8-12 22:30.
β1: Saturn’s elongation from its aphelion at 1901-8-13 10:20 = c. 12°.5.
β2: Saturn’s elongation from its aphelion at 1961-8-12 22:30 = c. 26°.8.

[1901-8-25 00:00 : 284° 36ʹ]:
 config A

[1961-8-12 7:26 : 297° 16ʹ]:
config B

Then, of the screened cases (validly extended) of the table §731g, the fittest for the condition of « Saturn at its aphelion » are those of the year 1901, those of the year 1961 having to be excluded.

In conclusion, all the conditions premised are found to converge into the unique period: 1st May 1901 01:27 – 30 August 1901 22:59, announcing probably the first year of the 20th century.
_______________________________________

© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved. 

§731(sequel-3) The age of re-innovation is at hand (the first year of the 20th century): I-16.

I-16 (§731 sequel-3).

Table §731e: Parallels.

Y
e
a

r

M

o

n

th

D
a
y

Hour:

LMT at

 Paris (2.4º E, 48.9º N)

Longitude

of the

aphelion

of Saturn: our results

Aphelion by

Horizons:

OM + W

+ PG.

 

CT +

00:09:36

1600

1

1

0:00

269°.0255

268°.1391

1650

1

1

0:00

268°.1589

269°.4474

1700

1

1

0:00

266°.3398

266°.5334

1750

1

1

0:00

269°.0382

269°.1915

1770

1

1

0:00

271°.4780

270°.0919

1800

1

1

0:00

272°.0609

271°.1026

1810

1

1

0:00

269°.9867

270°.0143

1820

1

1

0:00

267°.3515

267°.2161

1830

1

1

0:00

270°.5510

270°.1676

1840

1

1

0:00

272°.4163

272°.8952

1841

1

1

0:00

271°.4036

271°.9028

1842

1

1

0:00

270°.1088

270°.5075

1842

1

26

3:00

270°.0208

270°.4835

1842

2

1

0:00

270°.0003

270°.4131

1842

2

5

0:00

269°.9863

270°.2245

1842

2

10

0:00

269°.9688

270°.3688

1842

2

20

0:00

269°.9334

270°.1850

1842

3

20

0:00

269°.8284

270°.2391

1842

4

23

21:34

269°.7064

269°.9392

1842

4

30

21:00

269°.6473

270°.0320

1842

5

10

18:10

269°.6473

269°.8341

1842

6

15

0:00

269°.5239

269°.7023

1842

7

20

0:00

269°.4014

269°.7151

1842

9

2

13:10

269°.2455

269°.3421

1842

9

9

6:18

269°.2221

269°.5514

1842

9

12

6:08

269°.2116

269°.4064

1842

11

15

0:00

268°.9885

269°.1614

1842

12

10

0:00

269°.2569

269°.1353

1843

1

1

0:00

268°.8240

269°.0588

1844

7

1

0:00

268°.0195

267°.6062

1845

1

1

0:00

268°.1027

268°.0422

1846

1

1

0:00

268°.8578

268°.6644

1847

1

1

0:00

269°.9061

269°.6609

1847

1

10

0:00

269°.9358

269°.4423

1847

1

18

0:00

269°.9622

269°.8048

1847

2

1

0:00

270°.0084

269°.6754

1847

3

1

0:00

270°.0931

269°.5288

1847

4

1

0:00

270°.2010

269°.6662

1847

8

15

0:00

270°.7208

270°.5350

1848

1

1

0:00

271°.1395

270°.7057

1849

2

15

0:00

272°.2387

271°.7240

1850

3

15

0:00

272°.7442

272°.8308

1860

1

1

0:00

273°.7869

272°.6634

1870

1

1

0:00

270°.9814

270°.6109

1880

1

1

0:00

267°.9729

267°.4939

1890

1

1

0:00

270°.7616

270°.4136

1900

1

1

0:00

272°.1963

272°.8121

1901

1

1

0:00

271°.0742

271°.5110

1901

4

26

4:44

270°.6599

271°.2085

1901

5

1

01:27

270°.6428

271°.0764

1901

6

1

0:00

270°.5340

270°.9906

1901

7

10

0:00

270°.3971

270°.6536

1901

8

19

2:00

270°.2563

270°.6760

1901

8

21

0:00

270°.2495

270°.5602

1901

8

21

5:00

270°.2488

270°.5495

1901

8

22

0:00

270°.2460

270°.5080

1901

8

25

0:00

270°.2355

270°.4039

1901

8

30

22:59

270°.2147

270°.6476

1901

9

7

0:00

270°.1898

270°.4271

1901

9

14

14 :19

270°.1652

270°.5199

1901

10

31

0:00

270°.0002

270°.2234

1901

11

28

15:00

269°.8996

269°.9872

1902

1

1

0:00

269°.7824

269°.8960

1910

1

1

0:00

273°.5190

273°.4645

1920

1

1

0:00

275°.1289

274°.5728

1930

1

1

0:00

271°.8996

271°.8031

1940

1

1

0:00

268°.8184

268°.6216

1950

1

1

0:00

270°.8488

270°.5393

1960

1

1

0:00

271°.9068

272°.3541

1961

1

5

4:49

270°.6252

270°.7065

1961

2

18

21:17

270°.4676

270°.7254

1961

3

15

7:55

270°.3707

270°.4926

1961

5

9

17:54

270°.1754

270°.3694

1961

5

25

19:36

270°.1187

271°.8274

1961

8

12

7:26

(269°.8419)

270°.0337

1961

8

12

10:47

269°.8415

270°.0278

1961

9

23

15:37

269°.6927

269°.7651

1961

9

27

20:32

269°.6779

269°.9148

1962

1

1

0:00

269°.3980

269°.5895

1970

1

1

0:00

274°.0244

274°.0254

1980

1

1

0:00

275°.9692

275°.4515

1990

1

1

0:00

272°.9153

272°.5459

1991

1

1

0:00

273°.5139

273°.2075

1992

1

1

0:00

273°.7015

273°.6481

2000

1

1

0:00

270°.0830

269°.5931

2000

12

31

0:00

271°.6818

271°.1437

 

Table §731f: Extended detailed data by Horizons.

Year

M
o
n
th

Day

Hour:
LMT
at Paris:
2.4º E,
48.9º N.

Longitude of
 the aphelion
of Saturn
by Horizons.

Capricorn:
270°-300°

1842

4

23

21:34

269°.9393

1842

4

24

21:00

269°.8958

1842

4

25

21:00

269°.8663

1842

4

26

21:00

269°.8739

1842

4

27

21:00

269°.8934

1842

4

28

21:00

269°.9319

1842

4

29

21:00

269°.9809

1842

4

30

0:00

269°.9876

1842

4

30

3:00

269°.9943

1842

4

30

4:00

269°.9965

1842

4

30

4:30

269°.9975

1842

4

30

5:00

269°.9986

1842

4

30

5:35

269°.9999

1842

4

30

5 :40

270°.0001

1842

4

30

6:00

270°.0008

1842

4

30

6:30

270°.0019

1842

4

30

7:00

270°.003

1842

4

30

7:30

270°.004

1842

4

30

8:00

270°.0051

1842

4

30

9:00

270°.0072

1842

4

30

10:00

270°.0093

1842

4

30

11:00

270°.0114

1842

4

30

12:00

270°.0135

1842

4

30

21:00

270°.032

1842

5

1

20:00

270°.0831

1842

5

2

20:00

270°.1144

1842

5

3

20:00

270°.1181

1842

5

4

20:00

270°.106

1842

5

5

20:00

270°.0784

1842

5

6

20:00

270°.0329

1842

5

7

0:00

270°.0247

1842

5

7

6:00

270°.0131

1842

5

7

12:00

270°.0013

1842

5

7

12:30

270°.0002

1842

5

7

12:40

269°.9998

1842

5

7

13:00

269°.9991

1842

5

7

20:00

269°.9828

1842

5

8

20:00

269°.9158

1842

5

9

20:00

269°.881

1842

5

10

18:10

269°.8343

1961

8

12

10:47

270°.0278

1961

8

12

18:00

270°.0121

1961

8

12

21:00

270.0043

1961

8

12

22:00

270.0016

1961

8

12

22:30

270.0003

1961

8

12

23:00

269°.9989

1961

8

13

0:00

269°.9961

1961

8

14

0:00

269°.9176

1961

8

15

0:00

269°.8483

1961

8

31

0:00

269°.7889


Of these cases are excluded those whose dates (cells in gray) are off the periods determined by the condition of common retrogradation of Saturn and Jupiter: 10 May 1842 18:10 – 9 September 1842 6:18, 1st May 1901 01:27 – 30 August 1901 22:59 and 12 August 1961 10:47 – 23 September 1961 15:37 and also those whose data of aphelion are under 270° 00ʹ (cells in dark gray) are excluded.

Then, the cases legitimate for the condition of the common retrogradation of Saturn and Jupiter in loose conjunction and the condition of Saturn’s aphelion in Capricorn are as follows (table §731g of the following sequel-4).
_______________________________________
© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§731 (sequel-2) The age of re-innovation is at hand (the first year of the 20th century): I-16.

I-16 (§731 sequel-2).

d) Comparison of our astronomical calculations with those by Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System (SSD, JPL, NASA) concerning the aphelion of Saturn.

In order to confirm the results of our astronomic calculations, we try to compare them with those pruduced by Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System, JPL, NASA (
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi, 2009; telnet ssd.jpl.nasa.gov 6775, 2017; https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi, 2017). It is to be remarked that the Reference Epoch of these ephemerides is J2000.0 (: JD = 2451545.0), then, to compare their data with ours based upon the Reference Epoch of 1900 I 1.5 UT (: JD = 2415021.0), it is necessary to adjust these two Reference Epochs to one another. It is a problem of general precession.

General Precession (GP): According to Dr. Kho Nagasawa [
長澤工] in his Computation of positions of celestial bodies [『天体の位置計算』], Chijinshokan [地人書館], Tokyo, 1992, p.155, the calculating procedure of the general precession is formulated as follows: 0º.0139632t + 0º.0308333 × 10-6 t2 + 0º.056 × 10-9 t3. Now, t is the span of time measured since the epoch (= J2000.0) in terms of one Besselian year of 365.242194 days. Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System offers us the orbital elements of Saturn, whose OM (OMEGA: longitude of the ascendant node, in degrees) and W (w, argument of the perifocus = argument of the perihelion, in degrees) makes the longitude of perihelion of Saturn. The value of this longitude of perihelion must be revised by means of subtraction of that of general precession in the perspective of the past starting from the epoch: 2000-1-1-00:00 CT (: JD = 2451544.5). Then, the longitude of aphelion (in opposition to its perihelion) of Saturn is the sum of OM + W + GP (negative value) + 180º (reduced to 0º - 360º). (The cells in gray represent the time of retrogradation of Saturn).

Table §731d: Computations by Horizons.

Year

M
o
n
th

Day

Hour:
LMT at
 Paris (2.4º E, 48.9º N).

Aphelion
by
Horizons:
OM + W
+ GP
(CT+
0:09:36)

OM

GP

W

1600

1

1

0:00

268°.1391

114.7571

-5.5839

340.2742

1650

1

1

0:00

269.4474

114.633

-4.8857

338.3918

1700

1

1

0:00

266.5334

114.4954

-4.1876

336.2256

1750

1

1

0:00

269.1915

114.4507

-3.4897

338.2305

1770

1

1

0:00

270.0919

114.3194

-3.2105

338.983

1800

1

1

0:00

271.1026

114.2435

-2.7918

339.6509

1810

1

1

0:00

270.0143

114.204

-2.6522

338.4625

1820

1

1

0:00

267.2161

114.1858

-2.5127

335.543

1830

1

1

0:00

270.1676

114.1313

-2.3731

338.4094

1840

1

1

0:00

272.8952

114.0631

-2.2335

341.0656

1841

1

1

0:00

271.9028

114.0854

-2.2195

340.0369

1842

1

1

0:00

270.5075

114.1102

-2.2056

338.6029

1842

1

26

3:00

270.4835

114.1274

-2.2046

338.5607

1842

2

1

0:00

270.4131

114.1186

-2.2044

338.4989

1842

2

5

0:00

270.2245

114.0918

-2.2042

338.3369

1842

2

10

0:00

270.3688

114.1192

-2.204

338.4536

1842

2

20

0:00

270.185

114.0964

-2.2037

338.2923

1842

3

20

0:00

270.2391

114.1232

-2.2026

338.3185

1842

4

23

21:34

269.9392

114.103

-2.2013

338.0375

1842

4

30

21:00

270.032

114.1183

-2.201

338.1147

1842

5

10

18:10

269.8341

114.0989

-2.2006

337.9358

1842

6

15

0:00

269.7023

114.101

-2.1993

337.8006

1842

7

20

0:00

269.7151

114.1196

-2.1979

337.7934

1842

9

2

13:10

269.3421

114.1031

-2.1962

337.4352

1842

9

9

6:18

269.5514

114.1255

-2.196

337.6219

1842

9

12

6:08

269.4064

114.1151

-2.1959

337.4872

1842

11

15

0:00

269.1614

114.1152

-2.1934

337.2396

1842

12

10

0:00

269.1353

114.1156

-2.1925

337.2122

1843

1

1

0:00

269.0588

114.1176

-2.1916

337.1328

1844

7

1

0:00

267.6062

114.1293

-2.1707

335.6476

1845

1

1

0:00

268.0422

114.0921

-2.1637

336.1138

1846

1

1

0:00

268.6644

114.0921

-2.1497

336.722

1847

1

1

0:00

269.6609

114.1187

-2.1358

337.678

1847

1

10

0:00

269.4423

114.1645

-2.1355

337.4133

1847

1

18

0:00

269.8048

114.0969

-2.1351

337.843

1847

2

1

0:00

269.6754

114.1382

-2.1346

337.6718

1847

3

1

0:00

269.5288

114.1899

-2.1335

337.4724

1847

4

1

0:00

269.6662

114.1855

-2.1323

337.613

1847

8

15

0:00

270.535

114.0807

-2.1272

338.5815

1848

1

1

0:00

270.7057

114.1678

-2.1218

338.6597

1849

2

15

0:00

271.724

114.2093

-2.1061

339.6208

1850

3

15

0:00

272.8308

114.0709

-2.0911

340.851

1860

1

1

0:00

272.6634

114.0435

-1.9544

340.5743

1870

1

1

0:00

270.6109

114.0108

-1.8147

338.4148

1880

1

1

0:00

267.4939

114.0347

-1.6752

335.1344

1890

1

1

0:00

270.4136

113.9968

-1.5356

337.9524

1900

1

1

0:00

272.8121

113.9536

-1.396

340.2545

1901

1

1

0:00

271.511

113.9344

-1.3821

338.9587

1901

4

26

4:44

271.2085

113.9575

-1.3777

338.6287

1901

5

1

01:27

271.0764

113.9450

-1.3775

338.5090

1901

6

1

0:00

270.9906

113.9492

-1.3763

338.4177

1901

7

10

0:00

270.6536

113.9309

-1.3748

338.0975

1901

8

19

2:00

270.676

113.9504

-1.3733

338.0989

1901

8

21

0:00

270.5602

113.942

-1.3732

337.9914

1901

8

21

5:00

270.5495

113.9412

-1.3732

337.9815

1901

8

22

0:00

270.508

113.9381

-1.3732

337.9431

1901

8

25

0:00

270.4039

113.93

-1.373

337.8469

1901

8

30

22:59

270.6476

113.9501

-1.3728

338.0704

1901

9

7

0:00

270.4271

113.9379

-1.3725

337.8617

1901

9

14

14 :19

270.5199

113.9448

-1.3723

337.9474

1901

10

31

0:00

270.2234

113.9389

-1.3705

337.655

1901

11

28

15:00

269.9872

113.9344

-1.3694

337.4222

1902

1

1

0:00

269.896

113.9367

-1.3681

337.3274

1910

1

1

0:00

273.4645

113.9162

-1.2564

340.8047

1920

1

1

0:00

274.5728

113.9472

-1.1169

341.7425

1930

1

1

0:00

271.8031

113.8868

-0.9772

338.8935

1940

1

1

0:00

268.6216

113.7445

-0.8377

335.7148

1950

1

1

0:00

270.5393

113.868

-0.698

337.3693

1960

1

1

0:00

272.3541

113.7833

-0.5584

339.1292

1961

1

5

4:49

270.7065

113.7679

-0.5443

337.4829

1961

2

18

21:17

270.7254

113.7711

-0.5426

337.4969

1961

3

15

7:55

270.4926

113.7693

-0.5417

337.265

1961

5

9

17:54

270.3694

113.7688

-0.5395

337.1401

1961

5

25

19:36

271.8274

113.945

-0.5389

338.4213

1961

8

12

10:47

270.0278

113.7645

-0.5359

336.7992

1961

9

23

15:37

269.7651

113.7707

-0.5343

336.5287

1961

9

27

20:32

269.9148

113.7613

-0.5341

336.6876

1962

1

1

0:00

269.5895

113.7576

-0.5305

336.3624

1970

1

1

0:00

274.0254

113.7637

-0.4188

340.6805

1980

1

1

0:00

275.4515

113.7365

-0.2792

341.9942

1990

1

1

0:00

272.5459

113.6735

-0.1396

339.012

1991

1

1

0:00

273.2075

113.678

-0.1256

339.6551

1992

1

1

0:00

273.6481

113.6624

-0.1117

340.0974

2000

1

1

0:00

269.5931

113.6931

0

335.9

2000

12

31

0:00

271.1437

113.6332

0.0139

337.4966


_______________________________________
© Koji Nihei Daijyo, 2017. All rights reserved.

§731(sequel-1) The age of re-innovation is at hand (the first year of the 20th century): I-16.

I-16 (§731 sequel-1).

Now it is to be examined if during these periods Saturn is at its aphelion [Sythe at its high APSIS in Capricorn] or not.

c) Astronomic calculation of the aphelion of Saturn during the period: 1555-2000.

Anyone has not given until now the astronomic calculations of the aphelion of Saturn in order to answer the question of this quatrain. Thus far, only the classical data have been invoked by interpreters of Nostradamus (e.g. Brind’Amour, 1993, p.212; Guinard, Le quatrain I.16 et l'annonce de la chute définitive de la Monarchie (1842-1848), 2007-2015). But those data of old times, are they truly correct and believable even now, in this age of the greatest innovation in science ?  Now, the so-called astronomic chronology, namely the investigation of astronomical truths of celestial phenomena in ancient records by means of the modernest theories and techniques of astronomy, will help us to treat this problem.

Then, the longitude of the perihelion of the orbit of Saturn is one of its orbital elements. And its aphelion is in opposition to its perihelion. Therefore, the longitude of the aphelion is the sum of the longitude of the perihelion and
180º.

But
, Saturn and Jupiter, the two outer large planets, are subject especially to their mutual perturbations in their orbit that are not easy to be calculated with precision. We will follow the practice proposed by a leading tenant of astronomic chronology in Japan Dr. Kuniji Saito [斉藤国治] in his Astronomic Chronology [『古天文学』], KoseishaKoseikaku [恒星社厚生閣], Tokyo, 1989, p.57-75.

1. JD: Julian Days
2. Epoch: AD 1900 I 1.5 UT = JD2415021.d0  
3. C: JD of the date in question in term of century beginning with the epoch = (JD - 2415021)/36525
4. T: The year (Y) of the date in question in term of 10 centuries = Y/1000
5. PNL: The longitude of the perihelion of Saturn = 91º.09821 + 1º.958416C + 8º.26361·10-4C2 + 4º.61111·10-6C3
6. PNLp: The perturbative term = ( PS7 + PS8 ) / sin (3º.56 - 0º.175T - 0º.005T2)
7. PS7: The perturbative term of long period = - 0º.50 + B ( T ) sin { ( T - 0.54 ) 360º / 0.95} 
8. B(T) : Amplitude =
0º.10 - 0º.005T
9. PS8: The perturbative term of short period = To be calculated by means of the digital table VIIIc. Kurzperiodische Störungen 100 ψ8 of P. V. Neugebauer, Tafeln zur astronomischen Chronologie, II, J.C. Hinrichs’sche Buchhandlung, Leipzig, 1914, p.XI, p.60-61.
10. The digital table has two parameters: rETA [η] and rZETA [ζ].
11. ETA = 86º.1 + 0º.033459 ( JD - 1721057)
12. ZETA = 89º.1 + 0º.049630 ( JD - 1721057)
13. 1721057.d0: JD of AD 0 I 0, 12h UT
14. rETA: Reduction of ETA in large number to 0° - 360° = 360º ( ETA / 360 - INT(ETA / 360))
15. rZETA: Reduction of ZETA in large number to 0° - 360° =  360º ( ZETA / 360 - INT(ZETA / 360))
16. The longitude of the aphelion of Saturn = PNL + PNLp + 180º

Table §731c: Aphelions of Saturn.

Year

M
o
n
th

Day

Hour: LMT at Paris (2.4º E, 48.9º N).

Longitude
of the
aphelion
of Saturn
(heliocentric).

Capricorn:
270º-300º.

1555

1

1

0:00

265º.9921
(265° 59.5ʹ)

1600

1

1

0:00

269º.0255
(269° 02ʹ)

1650

1

1

0:00

268º.1589
(268° 10ʹ)

1700

1

1

0:00

266º.3398
(266° 20ʹ)

1750

1

1

0:00

269º.0382
(269° 02ʹ)

1770

1

1

0:00

271º.4780
(271° 29ʹ)

1800

1

1

0:00

272º.0609
(272º 04ʹ)

1810

1

1

0:00

269º.9867
(269º 59ʹ)

1820

1

1

0:00

267º.3515
(267º 21ʹ)

1830

1

1

0:00

270º.5510
(270º 33ʹ)

1840

1

1

0:00

272º.4163
(272º 25ʹ)

1841

1

1

0:00

271º.4036
(271º 24ʹ)

1842

1

1

0:00

270º.1088
(270º 07ʹ)

1842

1

26

3:00

270°.0208
(270º 01ʹ)

1842

2

1

0:00

270º.0003
(270º 00ʹ)

1842

2

5

0:00

269°.9863
(269º 59ʹ)

1842

2

10

0:00

269°.9688
(269º 58ʹ)

1842

2

20

0:00

269°.9334
(269º 56ʹ)

1842

3

20

0:00

269°.8284
(269º 50ʹ)

1842

4

23